OPINION
The honeymoon is over, baby. Like all freshmen leaders, Anthony Albanese has enjoyed a dream run in the opinion polls — for a while. But, as honeymoons do, sooner or later, the electorate rolls over and sees what the harsh glare of sunlight reveals.
It looks like Albo’s mascara has well and truly run and he’s got a horror case of morning breath.
Anthony Albanese’s honeymoon of voter political satisfaction has come to end in half the time Kevin Rudd enjoyed positive support, but it lasted longer than all the other prime ministers since, as well as John Howard.
“Longer” than Howard, by just one month.
And, unlike Rudd, it’s not been a sudden flip: the decline in Albanese’s poll fortunes started months ago, but has been supercharged by the racially-divisive “Voice” referendum. Voters who’d started to wrinkle their noses at the odd fart from the other side of the bed have suddenly been wallopped with a political dutch oven, and they’re not happy.
Faced with rising cost-of-living pressures, particularly on energy, food and fuel, as well as fighting a losing battle for support for the Indigenous Voice to Parliament and executive government, the Prime Minister’s standing has been gradually declining since May, a year since his election in 2022.
A fall into negative voter satisfaction has previously signalled a catastrophic collapse of support for a prime minister within the electorate and among colleagues or they can recover and survive a truncated honeymoon for more than a decade.
Which is to say that The Australian is having an each-way bet.
Mr Albanese’s “honeymoon” at 15 months is well short of Mr Rudd’s experience of 29 months after his election in 2007 but is just in front of the Liberals’ Mr Howard’s 14 months and well ahead of his other predecessors.
The latest Newspoll survey shows voter satisfaction with Mr Albanese dropped six percentage points to 46 per cent while dissatisfaction rose from 41 per cent in mid-July to 47 per cent, giving him a net negative satisfaction rating (minus 1) for the first time.
The length of time until the descent into negative voter satisfaction does not necessarily indicate a prime minister’s longevity, with some of the longest honeymoons resulting in the shortest-lived periods in office and some of the shortest resulting in the longest service.
What seems to make the difference between a honeymoon ending in abrupt divorce or marriage longevity is the policy substance of the political spouse. Kevin Rudd had little to offer but endless political junk food; John Howard could at least get in the kitchen and keep the three-square coming.
It’s not much of a case of voters’ roving eyes, either. Whether it’s a slapper or a stunner next door doesn’t make a lot of difference.
Mr Rudd and Mr Howard faced more popular opposition leaders in Tony Abbott and Kim Beazley respectively than Peter Dutton, whose satisfaction rating in Newspoll is minus 11.
Given that Abbott’s and Beazley’s net ratings were two and three, respectively, “more popular” is pretty relative. Tony Abbott was rating worse than Dutton (-12) when he brought down Julia Gillard. Bill Shorten was batting his eyelashes with a 17 rating when Abbott was ousted, but still lost to Scott Morrison at the next election.
No, what really counts is what a leader has got to offer.
Mr Rudd’s satisfaction rating started to fall after the global financial crisis and Labor’s policy on asylum-seekers buckled under pressure of the number of illegal boat arrivals and was the harbinger of a fall in ALP support. Despite his long positive rating Mr Rudd was removed as prime minister just 2½ months after hitting negative territory.
But the end of Mr Howard’s 14 months of positive satisfaction, which followed tough industrial law action and budget cuts to counter the recession, did not lead to a leadership challenge or an election loss for another 10½ years.
The Australian
Because, despite the media-left meltdowns over both, voters judged that Howard was making tough, but correct decisions.
Rudd, on the other hand, was all fluff and glitter, which vanished in a puff of regret as soon as the going got tough. If Anthony Albanese resembles any of the last six prime ministers, it’s Rudd all the way.
Time will tell whether he goes the same way.