James S Fay
James S Fay is a California attorney, political scientist, and semi-retired college administrator. His articles have appeared in social science and law journals and the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, and Real Clear World. He served as a US Army intelligence officer in Germany.
Numerous well-informed sources believe that the Ukrainian Army is near the breaking point. American aid, chronically hesitant and eleventh-hour, may be too little and too late.
If it becomes obvious that Ukraine is on the point of collapse, NATO will immediately convene, but the alliance will almost certainly fail to get a unanimous vote to directly enter the war. Hungary, Turkey, Germany, and others, perhaps the Biden administration, will plead for time and caution against a hasty decision that might provoke Moscow.
A perilous military situation in Ukraine, however, will demand immediate action. Ukraine’s closest neighbors are the ones most imperiled if she collapses. They will likely decide to act, unilaterally.
Poland and the three Baltic countries would be the new front line if Russia succeeds. To avoid that fate, they may, without NATO’s authorization, enter the war.
But they won’t be alone. The imperative of saving Ukraine and the rest of Europe will be too obvious for many other NATO partners not to act. Within hours, if not days, the Nordic countries, the Czech Republic, the UK, and most likely, France will announce that they will also provide “boots on the ground.”
Whether other NATO countries would agree to provide troops is uncertain. Both Biden and his possible successor are fair weather and highly unpredictable allies. Biden may put his reelection chances first and send more bombs and sleeping bags to Ukraine, but no troops. No one has a clue what Trump would do.
Germany will dither. Spain and Italy will have another cup of coffee.
Would these early commitments enable Ukraine to hold the front? Most likely, yes.
Poland and the Baltic countries have a joint population of only 43 million, but they possess 150,000 active troops and 390,000 reservists. Poland also brings 600 tanks, 59 fighter aircraft, and over 500 self-propelled artillery pieces along with their military manpower.
The four Nordic countries will quickly realize that the die is cast and step up to support their Eastern European allies. The Nordics would bring another 87,000 soldiers and over 900,000 mostly Finnish reservists into the picture. This would be a manpower gamechanger. Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark also bring over 150 fighter aircraft, 400 tanks, and 800 artillery pieces into the mix.
If these moves by Eastern Europe and the Nordics stiffen NATO’s spine, UK and France might feel that they need to act to maintain their global credentials and repair the reputational damage from their disgraceful sacrifice of Czechoslovakia to Hitler in 1938. These two military heavyweights would bring 400,000 soldiers, 950,000 reservists, 340 fighter aircraft, 400+ tanks, and 300 artillery pieces. Most importantly, they possess some 500 nuclear weapons.
Putin would likely swing his nuclear saber if all of these NATO members came to the front-line defense of Ukraine, but even if the United States remained non-committal, the British and French nuclear arsenal, and the means to deliver the weapons, would most likely keep Putin from moving beyond threats.
With ample reinforcements of troops, aircraft, artillery, anti-aircraft, and tanks, Ukraine could stabilize the front and gradually push the Russians back to the original frontiers while Europe settled into another long cold war.
A new European-based NATO would inevitably replace the former American-dominated one with Eastern and Northern Europe playing a more central role in both selecting leadership and setting policy.
James S. Fay is a California attorney, political scientist, and semi-retired college administrator. His articles have appeared in social science and law journals and the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, and Real Clear World. He served as a U.S. Army intelligence officer in Germany.