OPINION
Christopher Luxon needs to realise that the media are not his friends: in fact they are the enemy. The media also discovered that, when put under pressure, Luxon folds like a Warehouse deck chair. That’s why his ratings have plummeted in the latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll:
| Party | Support | Change compared to Feb 2023 |
| National | 37.4% | down 2.2 |
| Labour | 25.3% | down 2.6 |
| Green | 11.3% | up 2.3 |
| ACT | 10.0% | down 3.7 |
| NZ First | 7.4% | up 2.4 |
| Maori | 2.5% | up 0.2 |
For the decided party vote, National is down 2.2 points on last month’s poll to 37.4% while Labour also drops to 25.3% (-2.6 points) – this is Labour’s lowest score since our poll began in January 2021. The Greens get a 2.3 point boost taking them to 11.3% – also putting them ahead of ACT who dropped back down to 10.0% (-3.7%).
The smaller parties are NZ First on 7.4% (+2.4 points) and Te Pati Maori on 2.5% (+0.2% points).
For the minor parties, TOP is on 2.1%, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.3%, Vision NZ is on 0.8%, Democracy NZ on 0.4% with the rest combined making up the remaining 1.5%.
3.7% of voters were undecided after probing.
This month’s results are compared to February’s Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll
Christopher Luxon appeared weak and vacillating over his accommodation funding, even though the media were dishonest in the extreme about it. It shows two things, however: firstly, his political skills are tits and, secondly, the political skills of his advisors are even worse.
This was an easy issue to bat away and yet, under even a moderately high ball, he never looked like catching the ball and predictably dropped it. First he said he was entitled to it, which he was. Then he said he’d reverse part of…this is called a reverse ferret in politics and that ferret popped out his pants leg with a massive grin on its face.
It is therefore no surprise that National and Luxon took a hit, but it was Luxon who took the biggest hit:
39% of voters (-5 points) have a favourable view of Christopher Luxon while 44% (+11 points) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of -5% (down 16 points on last month).
40% (no change) of voters have a favourable view of Chris Hipkins while 38% (+3) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of +2%.
David Seymour has a net favourability of -8% while Winston Peters has a score of -12%.
This month we also asked respondents about their views on two National cabinet ministers. Erica Stanford had a net favourability of +5% and Shane Reti had a score of -1%.
Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll
Campaigners are always looking for an angle to take out their opponents. With political leaders, the first thing that anyone competent is looking for is net favourables. A leader with negative net favourables pulls down their party, as long-time readers will know happened with Andrew Little.
So National MPs will be watching the net favourables of Chris Luxon carefully. Luxon’s idiot ‘I’m entitled to my entitlements’ over his accommodation allowance has pulled his net favourables down 16 per cent to -5 per cent in the latest Taxpayers’ Union poll. Some are saying he lacks experience but it may be more a lack of talent than a lack of experience. His tone-deaf statement about ‘entitlements’ show how out of touch Luxon is with the average voter who is struggling and can’t see why a bloke owning seven houses needs to get an extra $52,000 a year in housing allowances.
If Labour were competent, which is a huge IF, they would be releasing a poll every month with Luxon’s net favourables, showing him weighing down National’s vote. They would also start incorporating a poll with a generic National leader, rather than Luxon, to show how much Luxon is pulling down National. Then they can start telling National MPs in list seats that Luxon being politically inept is going to cost them their seats.
Pressure in politics does not come from vacuous questions in question time that are batted away with ease. It comes from nailing your opponent for being unpopular and getting them to make more mistakes so they become even more unpopular.
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