OPINION

The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll is out and it seems that the Green’s sanctimonious balloon has been popped. It seems that voters will forgive benefit fraud, shoplifting, bullying each other, migrant labour exploitation and a myriad of other issues, but they really don’t like mouthy seppos getting shouty and assaulting shopkeepers.

PartySupportChange compared to April 2024
National37.3%up 0.2
Labour30.0%up 4.3
Green10.2%down 4.4
ACT9.4%up 2.2
NZ First5.5%down 0.8
Maori3.1%down 1.5

For the decided party vote, National is up slightly by 0.2 points on last month’s poll to 37.3 per cent while Labour is up to 30.0 per cent (+4.3 points). The Greens are down 4.3 points to 10.2 per cent, while ACT are up to 9.4 per cent (+2.2 points).

The smaller parties are NZ First on 5.5 per cent (-0.8 points) and Te Pati Maori on 3.1 per cent (-1.5% points).

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.4 per cent, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1 per cent, and the rest combined make up the remaining two per cent.

4.2 per cent of voters were undecided after probing. 

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:

Taxpayers’ Union

National maintains 47 seats while Labour is up five to 32. The Greens are down to 13 seats (down five) while ACT are up to 12 (up three). NZ First drop 1 seat to 7 while Te Pati Maori is unchanged on six seats.

This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have two overhang seats for a total of 122.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 66 is up two from last month while the Centre-Left unchanged on 56 seats.

On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government.

Taxpayers’ Union

Steady as she goes for the Government parties, and the Greens are finally seeing that voters really don’t like their sanctimonious tones and the corresponding rank hypocrisy from a party that tolerates and celebrates welfare fraud, shoplifting, migrant labour exploitation and chanting genocidal pro-terrorism slogans.

Expect them to slide further now that the most sensible Green, James Shaw, has left the party in the hands of the loonies.

Christopher Luxon’s net favourability is up 15 points on last month to +8 per cent while Chris Hipkins’s score increased 5 points to -1 per cent.

David Seymour is up 4 points to -7 per cent while Winston Peters is up 13 points to -5 per cent.

This month we also asked respondents about their views on two National Party Ministers. Paul Goldsmith had a net favourability of +5 per cent and Simeon Brown’s net favourability was +6 per cent.

Taxpayers’ Union

Interesting results regarding Paul Goldsmith and Simeon Brown. Both are more popular than Chris Hipkins, who is looking increasingly desperate.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between 05 May and 07 May 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent and 4.2 per cent were undecided on the party vote question.


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...