OPINION
Flatanker
Fifty years and one day after the Yom Kippur War, Hamas invaded Israel. They have killed and taken hostages back to Gaza. They have wounded the nation and angered it. Sadly, Israel will now move from retaliation to revenge.
The response is going to be brutal. Whilst the Palestinians have previously had global media supporting them, the scale of this attack precludes the usual pushback on Israel or ‘proportional’ response. This time, an act of war means Israel gets to reply in kind.
Iran’s hand is all over this as well. From weapons to training they are balls deep in this. Russia will be in the know as well. Though as to what level of involvement I don’t know. As to how Israel will deal with the source, Iran, I don’t know either. Hamas is the proxy so they will be dealt with. But the problem persists with what to do with Iran, especially as it gets closer to offensive nuclear capability.
What does Hamas gain out of this? Not much, in my opinion. They have done Iran’s bidding and will pay the price. In attacking the nation, they have galvanised it. The people will unite in wanting the threat removed from Gaza. If Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon kick up, Israel will go back into Lebanon. They may well adjust the boundaries for security purposes as well, as they did with the Golan Heights.
I doubt the Saudis, Jordan and Egypt will have any part of this. Gaza is a nuisance to Egypt. Plus, Egypt’s economy is struggling. Jordan has nothing to gain. The Saudis are keen to support anyone against Iran, so they are out. Lebanon and Syria are proxies for Iran
and in Syria’s case for Russia as well. But Russia is busy in Ukraine and so consumed it is abandoning other spheres of influence, like in Armenia where it was supposed to be the peace keeper. Some of the peacekeepers were fired upon and killed by Azerbaijanian troops backed by Turkey against the Armenians. Russia has done nothing, at great cost to their prestige as a great power. This may well stir rumblings on its satellite state borders as well. Perhaps even a Chechnya and Georgia revisited.
With all this mess happening in that part of the world, I suspect Israel’s response will not get the same results from global media and the UN as previously happened. This time Russia’s venture into Ukraine is likely to distract world attention after the news cycle dies down a bit and Israel can continue to deal with Gaza.
When Israel left Gaza in 2005 the local militants came to all the greenhouses, which were productive, and tore up the irrigation pipes to make rockets to fire into Israel. The ploughshare was turned back into a sword. Construction materials are mostly used to make tunnels. Some argue that Gaza should be levelled and people moved somewhere else like the West Bank or Southern Lebanon. It is an unviable entity that can only exist with aid from elsewhere and which is often misused. There appears to be no solution for Gaza that would allow Iran’s proxy to continue poking the bear whenever it felt like it.
The history of Israel is long and complex. Sadly, ordinary people pay the price for politicians and warlords with their egos and greed. I was in Israel when Yasser Arafat turned down statehood for Palestine and peace with Israel to keep fighting for crumbs at the behest of their backers in Iran. It was at that point that I knew the Palestinian people would never see peace with leaders such as these.