Winston is back. As the election draws nearer we will be hearing more and more from him. It follows a familiar pattern. He is a master at manipulating the media, who will chase him down the street for a single comment. He will come out with policies designed to attract interest. And – you never know – he and his party may reach the 5% threshold that allows him into parliament. It has all happened before, and there is every reason to believe that it could happen again.
But in 2017, it turned out that a vote for Winston was a vote for the most damaging, racist and hard-left government of all time. Most of those who voted for Winston had expected him to go with the National Party. I am not sure why this expectation arose. History had shown that he had previously gone with both National and Labour – once with the Bolger government and once with Helen Clark. Nevertheless, it is generally thought that Winston’s politics fit better with National than Labour. Certainly, I would say that he believes in democracy, rather than tribal rule, which puts him at odds with the Labour party of today. And Winston has said that he will not go into government with Labour. He claims that they kept their intentions to enact large parts of the He Puapua report away from him in 2020, therefore breaking the trust between the coalition partners.
Winston has always refused to state before any election who his favoured coalition partners might be. This has given NZ First power that the Greens and now Te Pati Maori simply do not have. By stating that they will only work with Labour, both minor parties hold fewer aces than they think. The Maori Party, at the moment, are listing their demands for any government that they form a part of, but Labour can mostly discard their demands, because the Maori Party has nowhere else to go. Similarly, the Greens may demand a wealth tax and a SKY decoder for every beneficiary but, again, Labour can mostly disregard them, because they will never form a coalition with the National party.
Winston, however, has already shown that he can work with either. But in past elections, he has steadfastly refused to say who he will work with, waiting until the election results are known before beginning negotiations.
So this election is different. A vote for Winston is a vote for the right. He has actually said so. Every voter has a clear choice. One one side is Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori, while on the other side, we have National, ACT and New Zealand First.
Those of us who have always wanted Winston to state his preferences before the election now have our wish. By stating that he will not go with the ‘current’ Labour party, we now know what kind of a government we are voting for.
Or do we?
There are many who feel betrayed by Winston choosing Labour in 2017, and they say they will never vote for him again. I am sure Winston is aware of that. So maybe ruling out Labour is his way of calling those voters back. Without them, he may struggle to attract enough voters to reach the 5% threshold. By ruling out Labour, he is giving those voters, mostly right-leaning, some security as to where to place their vote.
Winston is not stupid. He knows which demographic is likely to vote for him, and which are not. His voters tend to be in the older age groups, and of course their numbers dwindle each year. He may attract some younger voters, but not as many as he would like.
Also, Labour has moved much further to the left since 2017, and it is unlikely that this would sit well with Winston’s general politics. Before Jacinda Ardern, Labour was relatively moderate. Now Labour is the party fostering racial division, supporting criminals over law-abiding citizens and attacking farmers, the backbone of our economy. It has created two classes of citizens, turned New Zealanders stateless by closing the borders and forced people to take an experimental vaccine. Never in our wildest dreams could we have imagined all this six years ago.
So we can see why Winston might have ruled out a coalition with Labour. And his politics are a long way away from the politics of the Green party. But in 2017, many of us thought that he would never go into government with the Greens. He had no formal coalition with them, but they were all part of the same government.
But I just can’t imagine Winston showing all his cards before the election. He never does. It would mean that he would have little or no negotiating power at the coalition talks at all. This does not sound at all like Winston to me.
So the nagging doubt in the back of my head is that Winston will make all the right noises about not going with Labour, win over five per cent of the vote, hold the balance of power, and then begin negotiations with both parties. As in 2017, if National does not promise him the earth, he will do a deal with Labour. There is nothing stopping him doing this. The proletariat will already have voted. All bets will be off.
And his argument is that he will be the ‘handbrake’ that stops the crazy lefties from damaging the country. That was his argument in 2017. But once the coalition agreement has been signed, minor parties really do only have so much power, and that is a fact that Winston has exploited previously as well.
Winston may be the Lazarus of politics, but surely he is fast approaching his use-by date. He won’t care if people hate him for it. This may very well be his last hurrah. Do you not think that he will do whatever it takes to get back into government even if he doesn’t believe that it is in the best interests of the country?
After all, the Greens think the best thing for the country is a wealth tax. Te Pati Maori think the best thing for the country is tribal rule. And Winston thinks capitalism has failed.
I hate MMP. I hate the tail wagging the dog. I hate the fact that the party with the majority of votes does not automatically get a chance to form a government. It is, quite simply, flying in the face of democracy. But that is politics in New Zealand.
Imagine this. Imagine a government made up of Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori and NZ First. It could happen. The only good thing about it is that it wouldn’t last long.
This is the reason I don’t think I can bring myself to vote for NZ First. Our system is flawed, and we have to vote for the future we want. And, as always, too much uncertainty surrounds New Zealand First.