15th March 2021
Army vehicles are crossing the bridge from Insei to Yangon Industrial zone at Hlaing Thar Yar. Fires are raging from factory blazes. There is debate about whether they were started by protesters or agents provocateur/military.
The other side of the bridge from Hlaing Thar Yar is Insein.
The protestors put up a token resistance against the Military to slow their entrance into Hlaing Thar Yar. They blocked the main road from the bridge.
With reports coming in of troops being deployed from Mandalay and Lashio to Yangon, it sounds as though the big push is going to come shortly. It must be serious as the Military are still in the process of brutalising Mandalay.
The internet is due to close down for 24 hours on 16th March and the shooting of protestors has intensified.
The Junta must be thinking that they have to do something before the economic problems cause major difficulties and the shutdown would delay news and pictures reaching the West. The fires would (they think) give them justification for serious intervention as they have to protect the interests of foreign investors for the good of the country (In this case, Chinese investors).
Power has been turned off to Hlaing Thar Yar and martial law has been declared in Yangon.
The death toll is now 89 for yesterday.
- Hlaing Thar Yar 50
- Thin Gan Gyun 14
- Shwe Pyi Thar 3
- South Dagon 12
- North Okkalapa 2
- South Okkalapa 1
- Tar Mwe 1
- Hlaing 1
- Eain Sein 1
- Kyi Mint Taing 1
- Mandalay 1
- Bago 2
Mobile phone services and the internet have been closed down, so information is now getting difficult to come by and confirmation /verification of reports are increasingly difficult to obtain.
Just to show how difficult it is to get accurate information the following has just been released which is an update on the previous figures:-
- Hlaing Thar yar Tsp 76
- Thin gang yan Tsp 12
- Shwe Pyi Thar Tsp 3
- South Dagon Tsp 30
- East Dagon Township 1
- Insein Township 2
- South Okkalarpa Tsp 2
- North Dagon Tsp 2
- Kyi Myin Taing Tsp 1
- Tamwe Township 1
- North Okkalarpa Tsp 2
Total Dead -102
The Irrawaddy is still managing to get news out, and it had a lengthy interview with Derek Mitchell, ex-US ambassador to Myanmar. He gives good assessments of the situation and realises that there are limits to what can be achieved by the International protests. The biggest handicap is the positions taken by China and Russia. Indeed, Russia is alleged to be flying arms, material and two Mig 29 jets that were away for repair back to Myanmar on March 19th.
Derek Mitchell commented
When I was there, one major goal was just to get the Commander-in-Chief and Aung San Suu Kyi to meet and build a relationship of trust to enable a healthy and stable democratic transition. That finally happened after the 2015 elections, but unfortunately those meetings didn’t go very well. One reason, I think, is that both are very proud, stubborn, strong-willed people who represent proud, stubborn and strong-willed constituencies.
Perhaps the only solution is for both of them to be retired from the front line of politics.
Myanmar’s people are strong, creative and resilient—they have righteousness, justice, numbers and much of the world on their side—so I would never count them out. My biggest hope is that they remain united, that they use this awful moment as a foundation for long-term solidarity and national reconciliation over time. If this moment proves anything, it proves Martin Luther King’s maxim that “injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.” What happens to innocent Kachin, Karen, Rakhine or Rohingya anywhere should matter equally to any Burman or other Myanmar who cares about their own security and well-being. Ultimately, how ethnic nationalities, including ethnic armed groups, respond to this moment will go a long way, I think, to determining the success of the coup.
If they combine and form a united face with the aim of a federal Myanmar then the military will be in trouble.
The United States does not have enough leverage on its own, and shouldn’t be the only country to impose a cost on those who executed the coup. Japan has longstanding and deep economic, political and people-to-people ties to Myanmar, and has had a trusted relationship with the military, including the CINC [commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing] personally. I hope the Japanese government will recognize the potential damage to its image in the country, and to its interests broadly, should the coup proceed without Tokyo taking tangible steps to demonstrate its solidarity with the Myanmar people’s wishes for punishment of the military for the coup. Even as it engages, Japanese interlocutors must be prepared to back it up with muscle—implicit or explicit sanctions of some kind. India and Singapore—and ASEAN—could do likewise, although all are clearly not eager to do so. The hope is should the US and Japan come to an understanding on a joint approach, that could serve as the foundation for joint coordinated action elsewhere, including through the Quad [US, Japan, Australia, India].
Noticeable by its absence is New Zealand.
If the Tatmadaw [Myanmar’s military] expected they could just turn back the clock without negative consequences for the country, that the Myanmar people would accept quietly subversion of their democratic rights and imprisonment of their leaders after getting a taste of freedom over the past decade, that was a profoundly foolish assumption. If the military expected the international community to accept the coup and accommodate a new status quo quietly, that too was foolish.
They are literally murdering the hopeful future of the country in the streets, those who hold the promise of a truly better Myanmar. Shooting them in the head in cold blood. That is not only indefensible but fundamentally dishonourable, even cowardly. It should be a source of enduring shame. The world is watching, and repulsed. The long-term damage to the country will be profound. I suspect many within the Tatmadaw, including at senior levels, recognize all this. The question is whether anyone will have the courage to speak up and induce a strategic recalculation towards compromise soon to save the country’s future.
Source the Irrawaddy 15th March 2021
Wise words indeed from Derek Mitchell.
I leave you with a picture of Yangon in flames.
This may be the last picture for a while as communications are shutting down, but the Irrawaddy and Frontier are trying to keep getting stories out to the world at large.
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