31st October 2020
I am sitting here waiting for the announcement of a new lockdown in England. It was scheduled for 4pm, then deferred to 5pm, then sometime after 5pm and then 6.30pm. As the contents of the speech due to be made by the Prime Minister have been leaking all day, this suggests that he has trouble with his own party. There was a cabinet meeting at 1.30pm and it is apparent that it was a stormy session. There are differences emerging between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor as to will there be further support for industry? If so, what will be the quantum, and how much will it cost? What will be the damage to the economy and what will the impact of Brexit be on the situation?
One of the problems has been the different advice and outcomes from the analysis of the data available. There is advice from SAGE, the infamous Professor Neil Ferguson and Professor Gupta from Oxford and many others. Often this advice varies from expert to expert.
One “reputable” science source stated that the rate of infection is going to double every 9 days. This has gone unchallenged, but doing the basic maths on this, starting with a modest infected population on day one of 10,000 people then in 126 days the total infected would have reached 82,000,000 which is more than the population of the UK. Is it any wonder that people are getting rebellious and untrusting? Such shoddy science is becoming more and more prevalent, with comments such as “if this happens then deaths COULD reach XXXX”. This is the classic “out” to give an escape route when the worst doesn’t happen. The defence is that it didn’t happen because the government heeded the warnings and took action to prevent the worst outcome. They can never be proved wrong.
The press conference was an exercise in how to talk with your fingers crossed. The excuse given for the lockdown was that there was an impending capacity issue in the NHS and this would mean clinical staff having to make treatment decisions and allocate priorities as to who to treat. Thus, clinical staff would have to decide whether to treat Covid cases, urgent trauma cases and chronic cases such as cardiac and cancer patients. The lockdown would maintain capacity and demand being kept in balance.
Boris Johnson stated that all clinical care and treatment should carry on as normal (unfortunately the regular flu vaccination programme has been curtailed in my region as the authorities have run out of vaccine and don’t know when it will be available).
There will be a new lockdown starting on 5th November lasting until 2nd December, but not as severe as the previous lockdown. Pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops will be closed. Take-aways will be allowed and schools and universities will remain open, only essential travel allowed, and non-family contact minimised.
It is obvious that there has been major conflict within cabinet between the health and the economy factions. The only financial support mentioned is that the extended furlough scheme is extended to December. The bounce back loan scheme expires on November 30th and that has not been extended.
The economy is now on a tipping point, as with no further support there will be huge redundancies in the hospitality sector. Manufacturing will take a hit as SMEs run out of cash and they use up all the loan facility that they have drawn down. One of the rumours is that there has been a power-play between the chancellor and the prime minister with the chancellor threatening resignation.
It shows a complete lack of strategy from day one with incompetent implementation of the strategy that evolved. The track and trace system was a complete shambles and still doesn’t work successfully. Adherence to measures such as social distancing and limits on gathering sizes has been diminishing and there has been no political will to rigorously enforce them. Unless the government can win the minds of the people then they will find it difficult to control the situation. Unfortunately there is no trust in the government and that has been of their own making.
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