They say laughter is the best form of medicine. That was certainly true of the Sunday night Newshub poll and Tova O’Brien’s reaction to it. I think the most apt description of the poll came from Cameron Slater who called it “a complete joke”. It was a joke on a number of counts. There is ample evidence that this poll did not accurately reflect the current political climate. The poll was in itself contradictory concerning the National leader and party numbers. Both David Farrar, who does internal polling for the National Party, and Gerry Brownlee are in agreement that their numbers are much much closer.
It is important to note that when you get a poll such as this it does not mean the polling company is at fault. David Farrar makes this point and I agree with him. He says both Reid Research and Colmar Brunton are reputable polling companies but sometimes the methodology used can occasionally produce this sort of result. I think the methodology used is very important.
Let’s look at the Newshub poll methodology. Reid Research surveyed one thousand people, seven hundred by telephone including landline and mobiles and three hundred by internet panel. This internet panel is not used by Colmar Brunton for the One News poll. They interviewed 1,007 people, 404 via landline and 603 via mobile phone. The Colmar Brunton website has very detailed information including the questions asked for the One News Poll. I would like to know what questions are asked in the Newshub poll and how they are framed.
It appears anyone can join the panel and take part in surveys either in person, online, by phone or by mail. In some cases prizes, which could be cash, are given. The advantage with the panel is you can collect the data more quickly and therefore more efficiently. I am musing over why, this being the case, they did not conduct the entire survey in this manner. If the Colmar Brunton poll result is markedly different, (let’s hope so), is the use of an internet panel somehow a factor? Farrar would probably say no. David also points out that history will show that normally his and other polls are very close to each other, hardly anything between them.
That being the case, I think we should regard this as a rogue poll and not pay too much attention to it. It’s not the first time Newshub have produced a poll of this nature. However, to have a poll like this at such a crucial time is not at all helpful. And it doesn’t excuse Tova O’Brien using it to her own ends and waving her arms around like a demented hen. This woman displays the worst form of journalistic behaviour by putting her own personal spin on it instead of giving us some reasoned, well thought out analysis. On reflection, well thought out analysis is probably beyond her ken.
A couple of examples for analysis. If Judith’s personal popularity went up (as seen in the Preferred PM poll by Newshub) it seems very strange that the party’s popularity went down. It also seems strange that her transport announcement in an area where a large percentage of the population live would be seen as a negative. It would have been supported by a majority of those in the upper North Island but the poll did not reflect it. It also doesn’t tie in with a Massey University/Stuff survey conducted after Judith’s election as the leader which recorded an “immediate surge in support for National”.
A cynic would say this was a poll designed by Tova, run on behalf of Tova and, not surprisingly, produced the result Tova wanted. Watching her maniacal performance in reacting to the poll you could be forgiven for thinking that was the case.
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