OPINION
If there’s going to be a late surge in support for the “Indigenous Voice” referendum, as the Yes camp insist, then’s it’s a long time coming. With just weeks left until polling day, support instead continues to fall. And that’s after weeks of intense campaigning by Yes23, spending tens of millions on advertising and recruiting celebrity and corporate support.
Although “celebrity” is stretching the point a little when the Yes campaign has had to stoop to scraping MC Hammer out from wherever it is that washed-up 90s rappers go.
With voting bearing down fast, though, more and more voters seem to be saying, “We Won’t Touch This”.
According to an exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian, 36 per cent of surveyed voters say they intend to vote yes. This reflects a two-point fall in the past three weeks and a continuation of the erosion in support since the beginning of the year.
It also marks the lowest level of support so far for the federal government’s constitutional model to enshrine Indigenous recognition and a voice to parliament and executive government.
Despite Anthony Albanese’s campaign drive to win undecided voters, opposition to the referendum question has risen a further three points to 56 per cent, with less than three weeks to go before voters will cast their ballot.
Even worse for the referendum, support is falling hardest amongst the very groups the Yes campaign were banking on heaviest.
The swing to the No vote has occurred across almost all age groups and other demographic indicators but is most pronounced among women and younger voters who have been the strongest supporters of the voice to date.
Support among women has fallen from 41 per cent to 36 per cent but the proportion of those saying they would vote no has risen nine points to 57 per cent.
There is now almost no difference between male and female voters in their current voting intention with support for the voice among men ticking up three points to 36 per cent.
The decline in support among younger voters, however, signals a concerning trend for the Yes campaign.
The 18-to-34-year-old demographic is the strongest support base for the voice. However, even among this group, support has fallen five points to 50 per cent with a four-point rise to 41 per cent for the No vote.
At the beginning of the year, support for the voice among this group was close to 70 per cent […]
There has also been a fall in support among Labor voters, with those approving of the constitutional alteration falling from 61 per cent in the previous Newspoll to 56 per cent in the latest survey. Labor voters opposed to the voice rose five points to 36 per cent.
The Australian
The boost in Peter Dutton’s personal polling, which had risen as the Voice support fell, has evaporated. Dutton’s satisfaction rating dropped six points, to his lowest level as opposition leader. Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings rose a little, but are still at a dismal 47%.
The latest poll points to a significant defeat. For both the voice, and for Anthony Albanese personally […]
The political damage the voice debate has inflicted on both political leaders is now acute. The previous Newspoll revealed the damage to the Prime Minister, dipping into negative territory for the first time in his leadership and slumping to his lowest approval ratings on record […]
The No vote increases as Dutton’s personal numbers decline. Not only does this suggest that there is no corresponding electoral benefit for the Coalition if the referendum fails, it implies that while No voters may not like the voice, many are clearly unsettled and irritated by the tone of the debate.
The Australian
But does it, really?
After all, Tony Abbott recorded consistently low approval ratings during his tenure as opposition leader. Heading into the 2013 election, his net approval was just 49%. His opponent, Kevin Rudd, was the most consistently popular Australian PM in the last half-century.
Yet, Abbott won by a landslide.