The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll came out on Saturday, and it shows again that National is failing to grow its share of the vote. National is essentially flatlining with just 17 weeks of campaigning left until the election.
National is unchanged from last month on 36% while Labour drops 1 point to 33%. ACT is also unchanged on 13% while the Greens are up 3 points to 10%.
The smaller parties are the Maori Party 3.5% (-0.2 points), NZ First on 1.6% (-1 point), New Conservatives on 1.3% (-0.3 points), Democracy NZ on 0.9% (+0.6 points) and TOP on 0.8% (-0.9 points).
Curia poll
| Party | Support | Change from last month |
| National | 35.7% | up 0.1 |
| Labour | 32.9% | down 0.9 |
| ACT | 12.7% | nc |
| Green | 9.7% | up 2.7 |
| Maori | 3.5% | down 0.2 |
| NZ First | 1.6% | down 1.0 |
| Other | 3.9% | down 0.6 |
The election is now perilously close. One false step in the closing weeks and National’s margin of error lead over Labour could easily evaporate. This is the problem with Luxon failing to fire: he is imperilling the party as a result. National voters are still having to hold their noses, though, and that’s a problem. Luxon’s share of the women’s vote is a dead set liability. You lose the middle women, you lose the race.
On top of that Luxon’s net favourables are still hopelessly negative.
44% (nc) of voters have a favourable view of Chris Hipkins while 25% (+3 points) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of +19% (-3 points).
33% (+3 points) of voters have a favourable view of Christopher Luxon while 35% (-2 points) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of -2% (+5 points).
David Seymour has a net favourability of -4% (+7 points) while Maori Party co-leaders, Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, have net favourability ratings of -26% and -27%, respectively.
Chris Hipkins’s net favourability among undecided voters has dropped by 36 points to -6% and is now similar to Christopher Luxon’s score of -7%. David Seymour has a positive net favourability among undecided voters of +5%.
Curia poll
The chart above shows how deep Luxon’s problem is compared to Hipkins. It shows favourability by current party vote. Hipkins is liked by more of his own supporters than Luxon is by his supporters. Correspondingly, National voters only barely disapprove of Hipkins, whereas Labour voters overwhelming disapprove of Luxon.
If National voters can tolerate Hipkins, then National has a big problem.
Only a fool would ignore the polls. Claiming that all the polls are crooked is a Trump level of denial of obvious truth. It is often said in polling that the trend is your friend, and if you look at the trend across multiple polls it is plain for even Blind Freddy to see: National is flatlining, not growing, their vote.
In a close election this is dangerous and, if this election cycle returns to the norm after the aberration of 2020, then both Labour and National are going to lose votes the closer to the election they get while the minor parties are going to grow their vote. That is the usual pattern.
If that happens, then National can kiss goodbye to polling in the 40s like during the Key/English years. This makes it very difficult to form a government or even command a majority. Even John Key had to resort to doing a deal with the Maori Party. National under Luxon does not have that luxury, firstly because the Maori Party is vastly different now it is led by two unrelenting racists, and secondly because Luxon has ruled it out.
Right now Luxon is betting on a two-party coalition with ACT. At the same time ACT’s strategy is to cannibalise National’s vote, dooming National to being wedded to a party that is eating its lunch.
Sticking your head in the sand, ostrich-like, and saying you don’t trust the pollsters is simply ignoring reality. Sure the polls MIGHT be wrong and you don’t TRUST them, but what if they aren’t? I’d trust this poll: it’s by National’s own pollsters, so saying they are wrong if you are a National supporter is rather futile. It doesn’t strengthen your argument: it weakens it.
Same goes for commissioning your own poll and shouting about your results, but refusing to declare who conducted the poll or the methodology used. Again this is pointless and futile, and counter productive. If you have proof, then show it and share it, so it can be verified. Otherwise we can safely ignore your claims, secure in the knowledge that if you won’t say then its dodgy.
Another bit of hopium, the dangerous addiction to hope rather than reality, is that ‘The media will turn on the Government, soon, just you wait… it’s coming.’ No, it’s not. You are hoping this to be true and this does not make it true.
This is also evidenced by people who were just a few short weeks ago trumpeting that Luxon had kept his powder dry and was set to unleash it and then win…see, trust me its coming, watch and see…oh wait!
Sycophancy has never helped any politician or party. Recognising your own failings is how you can begin to address them and mitigate them so that you can grow your vote. Sycophancy is how Bill English thought he was winning in 2002. A little known fact is that the numbers in the internal polling were so bad that Murray McCully would gussy them up a fair bit before presenting them to Bill English, who, as a result of this sycophancy from his team, believed he was in with a chance when the reality was he had no chance at all. The arrogance and hubris of the man and his sycophants was their undoing.
My grandmother used to say wisely, “To thine own self be true,” and that applies as much to the individual as to commenting and analysing politics and politicians. Propaganda in any form and for any party is political quicksand that comes undone when reality strikes you in the face like a folded chair.
National right now are as much reality-phobes as Labour are. Reality is just 17 weeks away. Something has to crack.
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