March 23rd, 2023.
There were a few interesting comments on my last letter which I shall try to answer here.
I mentioned that I had worked in the Ukraine, but I had avoided commenting on the situation in my letters. The answer is complex but here goes. I was in Ukraine just after its independence from the Soviet Union advising small businesses on the transition from a regulated economy to one where the profit motive was allowed, with a requirement for proper accounting systems rather than just spending budgets.
I was privileged to have regular briefings at the UK embassy on trade and commercial matters. As a result of these and my experience in the field it was apparent that there was burgeoning corruption developing in the country and one had to be careful when advising businesses. It is obvious that corruption grew in Ukraine and by 2014 was entrenched in the country. This has continued up until the present date. Any comments I make on the situation would always be coloured by my views on the corruption. I would be able to comment on the geopolitics of the region, the impact on Europe, the EU and the Eastern European countries, using contacts that I still have in Ukraine. However, I would tend to get bogged down in arguments if people raised the issues of corruption, which generally diverts attention away from the geopolitical impact. Is it a just war? Can it be a just war if both sides are corrupt? A moral maze best avoided.
So, to avoid this, I just don’t write about it. As a slight digression, when I was there, I was in a supermarket (Gastronom) and saw the chilled cabinet full of packets of cornflakes. I asked the manager (who I was advising) why and got the answer “because this week we have cornflakes”. The joys of a pre market-led economy!
I will make one comment though – I have written extensively about the situation in Myanmar and the military government was getting most of its material from Russia and China, with some Ukrainian-manufactured weapons arriving via Russia. These sources are now drying up for obvious reasons, slowly changing the situation in Myanmar.
The next main comments arose from my description of the UK as a shambles. How did it get into that state? The answer is simple and is two words – Tony Blair. His policy of supporting the invasion of Iraq (legal or otherwise) placed the UK firmly in the sights of Al Qaeda, Isis and other assorted radical groups. This caused the UK to be a target for terrorist attacks and a subject for domestic subversion amongst minority groups. It also caused an increase in refugees, asylum seekers, economic migrants etc. This has put pressure on the economic and social infrastructure of the UK.
In an act of supreme folly, he instigated the policy of devolution, the theory being that the countries would be so grateful for the extra power they received that they would be happy and not push constantly for full independence. That worked out well.
The electorate was so anxious to get rid of Blair and his successor, Gordon Brown, that they voted in a coalition of the inept David Cameron and Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats. This in turn led to Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Brexit, Liz Truss and the current corporate manager Rishi Sunak.
A whole string of less-than-competent leaders and a history of giving in to the policies of the left, moving away from traditional conservatism. George (Gideon) Osborne’s economic policies caused long-term damage to the UK.
Admittedly when he became Chancellor in 2010 after the Blair/Brown years he was left in a difficult situation.
The economic crisis was in full swing and, infamously, the then chief secretary to the Treasury David Laws remarked that his Labour predecessor had left a note in the Treasury on departing office that read, “I’m afraid there is no money.”
CNBC July 14th, 2016.
Fancy that – a Labour administration had run out of money.
His solution, spending cuts, worked for a while but with the arrival of a second unexpected economic impact (Covid) it left the country unprepared to deal with the impact. This exploded last year with demands for huge wage increases across the public sector and the increasing level of public dissatisfaction with arrogant politicians (eg Boris Johnson’s breaches of the Covid regulations) and Liz Truss’s economic ineptitude.
By the way, can anyone think of another country where power is being devolved to certain sections of the population without the agreement of the majority?
I seem to recall that Jacinda Ardern spent time in Tony Blair’s office while all this was going on. I don’t suppose this has had any impact on New Zealand?
Finally, things in the village are getting back to normal with the beer festival passing successfully at the weekend. The first signs of spring are now evident with the utility companies digging up the roads before they lose the balance of their budgets.