Sir Bob Jones
nopunchespulled.com
As I’ve frequently written before, ignore political polls. Their format simply no longer works, not just here but everywhere. They’ve been wrong for a decade now in 70% of elections and often dramatically astray.
In my view, the only things which will save the government is first, an escalation of the Ukraine situation to a major war. I won’t call it World War Three as we’ve never actually had any World Wars. For example, the so-called World War Two had almost no participants from two major continents, namely Africa and South America.
Nevertheless, should the current Ukraine situation expand to direct NATO involvement on the ground, such could be the global panic it could rescue the government. The chances of such an escalation in my view are currently about 40%.
The other contingency which would save the government is a major natural disaster of the Christchurch earthquake scale. With New Zealand, that’s an ever-present threat.
As a volcanologist Professor told me over 30 years ago, it’s not a question of if, but when White Island explodes and takes out most of the burgeoning Bay of Plenty.
Crises of this scale always see a huge political shift in favour of the incumbent government. As I predicted, Hipkins is enjoying the standard new leader polling honeymoon. But he was a key player in the disastrously authoritarian Ardern administration and while dropping bad policies will help reduce the sheer rage now everywhere, such moves won’t rescue the Party from a crushing well-deserved defeat in October.
Read these remarks in the context of my oft-expressed view that it’s been almost solely Labour governments which have shaped the good things about New Zealand.
But history will record the Ardern government as our most incompetent with a legacy of disastrous decisions. Not only was Hipkins a key player in those hugely damaging blunders but he lacks any leadership imagery and instead oozes an uninspiring scout-masterly zeal.
The bored political journoes will try and build him up but they’re preaching to a tiny audience, who still read newspapers or watch the state television channels.
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