The latest 1News/Kantar poll, and the last for the year has delivered nothing but bad news for the Ardern regime, inexorably sinking lower and lower with each month. They will start the political year next year well behind National and ACT.

National has increased its lead over Labour in the latest 1News Kantar Public Poll, remaining on-track to form a coalition government with ACT at next year’s election.

And while Labour leader Jacinda Ardern remains ahead in the preferred PM rating, National leader Christopher Luxon has further closed the gap.

In the party results, National is up 1% to 38%, Labour is down 1% to 33%, ACT is up 2% to 11%, and the Green Party continues to hold steady on 9%.

New Zealand First rises 1% to 4%, one step closer to a possible seat in Parliament for the next cycle, and Te Pati Maori holds steady on 2%.

Translated to seats in Parliament, National (49) and ACT (15) are together projected to secure 64 MPs based on today’s results, more than the 61 needed to govern.

Labour (42) and the Greens (11) are projected to win 53, rising to 56 if Te Pati Maori were to join (assuming Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki).

1News

Labour has significant problems too, heading into election year. The Reserve Bank is deliberately creating a recession in order to try to control inflation that has mostly been caused by a profligate Grant Robertson who seems to think spending like a drunken sailor is the key to economic prosperity.

Labour’s fortunes are closely linked to Jacinda Ardern’s own ratings and she’s nowhere near as popular as she once was. She has developed a reputation for being a liar. And the news that her slogan of being “open and transparent” was a myth will have further dented her narcissism. The Chief Ombudsman has announced an inquiry into Ardern’s own department, amongst others, that has been treating the Official Information Act with disdain. Little wonder then that her star has waned.

ACT is going to start to react too to the obvious fact that Winston Peters and the NZ First Party are also on the rise. That’s why David Seymour’s comments on the poll attacked Winston Peters. It made him look negative, but the reality is Seymour is going to have a fight on his hands; one he is ill-equipped to handle.

Winston Peters will come roaring back, that’s now a given. He is heading into election year just shy of the required 5%. His public meetings are standing room only and he is saying the right things about mandates, vaccines and the harms caused by the intransigence of the parties currently in parliament which don’t even listen to what people are concerned about.

Election campaigns generally see the major parties lose support, while the minor parties gain. That’s good for Winston Peters, and not so good for National and Labour.

As Labour sheds more support, expect to see NZ First go further, with the voters who can’t bring themselves to vote National, but who still want a change of government.

Now we wait and see what Newshub’s last poll of the year says, and the last Roy Morgan, due in a few days.

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...