Was National Too Wet for Bridges?

Last week’s shock 1News opinion poll was the final indication, if Bridges needed it, that his chances of eventually taking back the leadership and becoming PM were slim to none. Any feeling that it was worth waiting around to see if Luxon might stumble over the next couple of years could be put to bed.

Bridges says he had been thinking of departing for some time, beginning with the coup against him prior to the 2020 election, when Todd Muller was installed with the help of Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis.

Despite that setback, Bridges managed to stay energised and clearly wanted to regain the top position. After all, prior to Covid hitting, National was on 46 per cent in the polls in an election year and he had been on track to become New Zealand’s first Maori prime minister.

While in the political wilderness after the coup, Bridges went through a remarkable renaissance, publishing a well-received and thoughtful book, growing his hair, and becoming widely described as rather “Zen”. And although he was sanguine enough about future ambitions to run for leader again just a few months ago, he says he was also mulling a departure from politics.

With Luxon as leader, Bridges played a key role in helping rebalance the party and unify the factions. He returned to form as a frontbench finance spokesperson, being a real threat to Grant Robertson, and more recently pushing a very successful cost of living campaign.

This means that Bridges departs on something of a high. Much like John Key, he goes out when people aren’t expecting it. And, as with Key, many have been looking for the “real” reason for his departure. But a consensus has quickly developed that there is no scandal behind Bridges’ resignation. His explanation can be taken at face value. The attraction of spending more time with his family and developing a new (un-announced) career in Auckland after years of bruising and turbulent times in the bear pit of the National caucus will ring true for most.

What Bridges’ departure says about problems in National

The personal and positive explanations that Bridges has given for his departure shouldn’t blind us from the push factors. He’s not spilling the beans about them at the moment, wanting his departure to be full of grace and positivity.

There is the problem of Jami-Lee Ross’ upcoming trial scheduled for July. Even if there are no more damaging revelations about Bridges’ involvement in the alleged illegal donations, having what has already been revealed dragged into public view again will not be helpful to either Bridges or National, especially if he was still a sitting National MP.

And there are clearly internal political factors at play. Bridges is departing in defeat, and leaving behind a National caucus that is said to be still frustrating him.

He has had to endure working closely with an inner circle including Christopher Bishop and Nicola Willis, who are leaders of National’s liberal faction and were behind the ill-fated Todd Muller leadership coup. He is said to feel betrayed by them and that relationship was never going to recover.

Insiders say that as the leader of the conservative faction in National, Bridges has felt marginalised under the new leadership.

Richard Harman wrote yesterday:

“That he has decided to go has raised questions among some in the caucus about whether conservatives like him are slowly being squeezed out of decision making. There are also suggestions that he was frustrated with the way things were being run under Luxon, even that he was unhappy with some staff appointments.”

As to who is likely to take over as essentially the conservative faction leader, Harman points to the prospect of Shane Reti (promoted today to number four in the National hierarcy) and Louise Upston moving further into the inner circle of the leadership. This might go some way to helping find greater equilibrium in National’s traditional liberal-conservative ideological balancing act.

At the moment, the liberals dominate, which means National is light on appealing to more conservative voters. Stuff political editor Luke Malpass put it this way:

“Bridges was cut from more conservative and confrontational cloth than Luxon. He was not worried about going after some culture wars issues and be tough on crime and gangs and drugs. He represented part of National’s caucus, and an important wider constituency of the party. Without him in that position, someone else will have to step up.”