Many of you on this site express frustration at an opposition that ‘does nothing’. They vote along with the government on anything to do with COVID, forcing us all to believe that, if they were in government, they would be doing exactly the same things. I don’t think that is true. While I don’t know exactly what they would do differently, I think I do understand why they appear to agree with every health response from the government; and this is true of both Judith Collins and Christopher Luxon. It does not mean that they necessarily agree with everything the government is doing, even if it appears that way.
Just bear with me for a moment.
Simon Bridges’ prime ministerial hopes were dashed when he questioned the government on its COVID response in 2020, even though he was perfectly entitled to do so as the chair of the COVID Response Committee. The reaction was savage. The media (who else?) tore him into strips, saying he was a granny killer and the public’s response at the time was equally bad. Those were the early days of the pandemic when people were dying of COVID and everyone was scared. And whether you approve of Bridges or not (personally, I think he is an asset to National, but I never really saw him as prime minister material), it was an ignominious way for his leadership to end. Along came Todd Muller, who crashed and burned, and we all know what happened after that.
Nobody in National has dared to question the government’s pandemic response since.
But why not? Surely now, when we have just about the most rigorous restrictions in the world and the shameful situation of locking out our own citizens, they could afford to openly criticise the government? Well, they are starting to do that a bit more openly but there are still problems. There is still a lot of fear out there – fear of a virus that has now turned into a 2 day cold – but the government has succeeded in terrifying a large number of people into complying. Yes, you can call them sheep as much as you like, but that will not change anything.
Let me recount a conversation we had over drinks last night. We have friends who are very, very worried about the virus, and nothing will shift their position. Their fear may be exaggerated and misplaced, but it is very real for them. They have arranged a group with friends to all support each other ‘when’ they get sick with COVID, to help with shopping, medicines and I assume wiping the fevered brow. I was asked if I would like to be part of this support group. It took every ounce of restraint not to burst into hysterical laughter but I just said No. Remember, they were being kind and, as far as they are concerned, they were being good friends. Remember also that the town we live in has never had a case of COVID – not at any stage of the pandemic.
But pointing out that fact cuts no ice with them at all. It is coming. We are all going to get it… and thousands will die. They may be among them. This is very real for them. When I said that Omicron is merely a cold, I was told that colds kill people. When I said I don’t agree with vaccinating children, I was told that children die of COVID. You cannot reason with these people.
They are triple-jabbed and terrified out of their wits.
The trouble is, they are far from alone.
But also, they are not totally enamoured with the government, mainly for other reasons, such as 3 Waters and the Maorification of everything. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that they could vote National in 2023. They consider ACT to be too far-right (yeah, whatever) but if they take to Christopher Luxon, Jacinda might lose them completely. There are a lot of people in this situation. They are people who voted for this government last time, and they may not do so in 2023.
But every time someone from National even vaguely suggests doing something different, the outcry from Labour MPs is the same. National is accused of putting profit over people, of being prepared to sacrifice lives on the altar of corporate earnings. It never seems to enter any of their thick skulls that the empty shelves and food shortages are because the Government prioritised COVID over everything else.
This is all part of a cynical but very effective game that reminds people to be very afraid. It is hard to argue with a policy that ostensibly saves lives.
We will never know how many lives were saved by the government’s restrictions, and that is the point. They can exaggerate it as much as they like, or dust off Shaun Hendy to do some horrifying modelling. What actually would have happened if we had not had all those restrictions is something we will never know.
If Christopher Luxon gets himself branded as someone who is prepared to let people die while looking after his ‘rich mates’, then those swinging voters will stick with Labour. He can’t afford to do that.
With respect, National does not have to chase the votes of most people on this site. Whatever you think of National’s policies, hell would have to freeze over before you would vote Labour or Green. He needs to chase the soft vote: first, the National voters who deserted the party in 2020, and then the swinging voters who are not committed to any political party. Most of us on here are in neither camp.
But National has time on its side. The election is still over 18 months away, and they will have time to tear the government to pieces over all the other things that they have done poorly – from housing, to child poverty, to bringing stranded Kiwis home, to tackling shortages… there will be time for all of that, once the pandemic finally recedes and restrictions are, at long last, lifted.
Even my friends acknowledge that the pandemic will soon be over. Their view is that they just have to get through the next few weeks. It is hard trying to reason with people who think they will probably die within the next few weeks, but as I said, they are not alone.
If the National Party can keep its powder dry for a bit longer, wait for the pandemic to end and then start criticising the government on their failure to end restrictions (which will happen… we all know it will), they may get a lot of support. They are making inroads already. What is the expression? Slowly, slowly, catchee monkey. Patience and highlighting the errors of a truly despotic government will get them across the line in 2023.