The latest Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll was released yesterday and it has seen National throw off the shackles of the 20s and leap nearly 7 points into the 30s. It has come at the expense of ACT though, as voters come home to National after dabbling with the ACT Party.
National Party leader Christopher Luxon has won his party an immediate bounce in a poll – but at the expense of potential coalition partner ACT.
And the Left-wing bloc of Labour and the Greens remains well ahead.
The new poll from the Right-wing Taxpayers’ Union is the first since Luxon took over the party’s leadership from Judith Collins after she lost a confidence vote.
It has National at 32.6 per cent party vote support – up 6.4 points on a poll conducted a month prior.
But ACT has lost 5.3 points, falling to 10.6 per cent. The Maori Party was up 0.7 points to 3.0 per cent.
Labour has basically remained static with a 0.2 point rise to 39.5 per cent support, while the Greens gained 2.3 points to 10.9 per cent.
On those results, Labour would win 49 seats and the Greens would win 14, giving the two parties a clear path to a 61-seat majority – and to government.
National would win 40 seats while ACT would win 13, meaning that even if the Maori Party opted to go with National and ACT, the three could not get over the 61-seat line.
What Stuff has failed to observe is the trend. A single poll does not give anyone a good indicator of where things are at. You need to look at the trends.
The trend for Labour is down and the trend for National is up. This trend is apparent for several months now. Labour won’t yet be panicking but they will be concerned.
| Party | Support | Change from last month |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 39.5% | Up 0.2 |
| National | 32.6% | Up 6.4 |
| Greens | 10.9% | Up 2.3 |
| ACT | 10.6% | Down 5.3 |
| Maori | 3.0% | Up 0.7 |
| NZ First | 2.3% | Up 0.6 |
| Other | 1.1% | Down 5.0 |
What will be alarming Labour strategists is Christopher Luxon exploding onto the scene with a very creditable score in the Preferred PM stakes:
| Preferred Prime Minister | December 2021 | Change from last month |
|---|---|---|
| Jacinda Ardern | 39.1% | Up 5.1 |
| Christopher Luxon | 20.4% | Up 16.3 |
| David Seymour | 5.6% | Down 4.9 |
| Winston Peters | 2.4% | Up 0.9 |
| Sir John Key | 1.8% | Up 1.3 |
| Judith Collins | 0.8% | Down 5.5 |
| Simon Bridges | 0.1% | Down 1.1 |
This is the best result of any Opposition leader in this poll since Sir John Key was in Opposition. Luxon actually has a slightly higher net favourability (for now) than Ardern at +15% versus +14%. In other words, he is better liked than Ardern is. The challenge will be maintaining this position as neutral or unsure voters get to know him.
That’s a very good start from Christopher Luxon, despite the attempt from the Media party to smear him from the get-go. The challenge now is to improve upon that week in and week out, month by month. Labour is on the wane and National is on the gain. It’ll be two long years but the signs for National are looking promising.
The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll was conducted from Wednesday 1 December to Wednesday 8 December 2021 with the median response on Monday 6 December 2021. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 24,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level.
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