Two polls have been released in as many days. One from Roy Morgan and also one from Newshub/Reid Research. Both polls show that Labour is on the slide.
Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government dropped 1.5% points to 49.5% in July – the lowest for the Government since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Support for the Labour Party was up 1% point to 39.5% but support for the Greens dropped 2.5% points to 10%. This is the lowest level of support for the Greens since last year’s election.
The governing parties are now just 5% points ahead of the parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/Maori Party on 44.5%, up 1% point since June. This is the highest level of support for the parliamentary Opposition since October 2019 and the closest they’ve been to the Government since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017 nearly four years ago.
Support for National was virtually unchanged at 29%, down 0.5% points, while the big mover was Act NZ which increased its support by 1.5% points to a record high 13%. This is the first time since 2002 that Act NZ has gained a higher level of support than the Greens. Support for the Maori Party was unchanged at 2.5%.
A small minority of 6% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for The Opportunities Party up 1% point to a record high 3%, support for NZ First up 0.5% points to 2% in July.
Roy Morgan
Newshub reports on their poll:
For the first time since her historic election result, the glow from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s gold medal win has tarnished.
Labour has hit hurdle after political hurdle and it’s hurt badly, in the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll. But National and Judith Collins won’t be cracking the champagne – they don’t even make the podium, because an old ally has become her greatest threat.
The poll results show Labour’s ironlike grip on Parliament has been unclenched. It no longer governs alone on 43 percent, plunging a decisive 9.7 points.
Newshub
The farmers’ protest, the inane bike bridge and the constant drip of bad news over the past few months are taking their toll. People are waking up to the constant failure and non-delivery by this Government.
Another few months like this and the tables will have turned. Right now the chances are good too that Winston Peters will rise again. We would then be watching a much more even split between three governing parties and the electoral demise of Labour.
Predictably, Tova O’Brien thinks this is the end for Judith Collins, but she’s been harping on about this since before she took over as leader. Tova O’Brien showed long ago her left-wing bias and her willingness to be in the team of $55 million. She’s been wrong before and she is wrong again.
Labour has lost those seats which they gained at the last election. When the fuel shortages that are coming start to bite they’ll lose the cities too. Remember this when you hear about looming fuel shortages and where you heard it first.
People always ask me about polls and when are things going to shift. Here’s what I tell them. Looking at polls is like looking at a river in flood. What you see depends on which side of the river you are looking from. Labour has been looking out on the river thinking they are on solid ground and National is in danger of being swept away by the flood. National is on the other side of the river watching Labour show supreme confidence as they stand on the bank of the river. But what National can see is that the river has been slowly but surely undermining Labour’s bank.
This poll is the first sign that Labour’s bank is collapsing under the dead weight of so many useless ministers from the Prime Minister down.
Wait until the next Groundswell protest hits. I predicted the Groundswell would signal a winter of discontent, and so it is coming to pass. When the fuel shortages hit then you will see a massive slump in Labour’s polls. When the delta variant escapes the border Kiwi voters will realise we have been living in a fool’s paradise. All that is needed now is a couple of dud ministers to take a dive or be implicated in a scandal and the balloon will pop permanently.
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