My overall take is that this is a smart reshuffle, and positions Labour much better than last term.
The good
Robertson instead of Davis as Deputy PM. The PM would have been unable to leave Wellington if Davis had been Deputy PM.
Hipkins keeps COVID-19 response and his beloved Education.
Little getting Health may be inspired. Could be very good at forcing through change.
Mahuta getting Foreign Affairs will get good publicity for the symbolism.
Justice going to Faafoi is a good challenge for a Minister who has been one of their more competent.
Jackson getting Maori Development will work well for them, with his contacts.
Very smart to make Michael Wood Minister of Transport. He is Goff’s former campaign manager so there will be no gap between the Government and Council on Auckland transport priorities. Can possibly turn the light rail plans from a joke into reality
Wood also is a smart choice for Workplace Relations. Wood is a former union official and highly tribal, so he will make sure there is no back down on implementing law changes to benefit their union funders.
Allan and Verrall into Cabinet is a good sign of rewarding competence, not longevity.
Clark back in Cabinet but at the bottom with junior portfolios is also smart. Clark also could do very well with SOEs and Digital Economy with his Treasury background.
Twyford being sacked from Cabinet is the accountability for non-performance voters wanted. This helps turn around Ardern’s reputation of being too soft on non-performers.
The bad
Keeps Racing as a portfolio, and gives it to Robertson.
Twyford’s portfolios don’t justify him being a Minister. His only full portfolio is Disarmament which is probably a one hour a week job.
The challenges
Davis as Minister for Children may struggle with Oranga Tamariki constantly being criticised both for not preventing child abuse and for taking kids away from abusers. It is a very difficult portfolio.
Having the Ministers of Justice, Police and Corrections as all Maori or Pasifika may mean a greater chance of turning around negative criminal justice outcomes for those communities but also risks a backlash if serious crime rises.
Again overall this is a very smart Ministry decision by Ardern. They do still have a number of weaker ministers, but the important portfolios have gone to competent Ministers. The critical ones for the next term are:
- Finance – Robertson
- Housing – Woods
- Education – Hipkins
- Health – Little
- Attorney-General – Parker
- Justice – Faafoi
- Transport – Wood
If they manage to deliver and/or manage competently in those areas, they will be well placed in 2023.
But even with reasonably competent Ministers, some of those areas will be very challenging. Housing is looking to be a nightmare with the waiting list skyrocketing even faster than house prices. Repealing Three Strikes could be very unpopular and restructuring health is always dangerous, especially at a time of great funding stress.