John Rofe
Private Investigator
The Holocene interglacial period began at the end of the most recent full ice age which ended about 11,700 years ago. It is generally accepted that the passage of Ice Ages and their interglacial intervals occurs every 100,000-120,000 years and they are caused by what are termed as Milankovich Cycles, from the alterations to the tilt and obliquity of Earth’s posture toward the Sun and the more dramatic eccentric orbit cycle that increases Earth’s distance from the Sun for tens of thousands of years. Major individual volcanic events also play a part in dramatically altering the Earth’s weather for a few years until the water cycle cleans up.
The Sun rules our lives in a predictable fashion, not just daily, but also throughout the year with the change of seasons. Diurnal temperature changes are very large as are seasonal changes. We can set our clocks by the impact the Sun has on our lives. It provides almost all Earth’s energy, so logically small variations in solar activity should have a profound impact. For some reason, this has impressed our forebears and yet the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“UN IPCC”) have managed to ascribe a dominant role for humanity in changing our climate from their vague idea of what constitutes normality, to a notional “Hot-house Hell”. The second article of the UN IPCC charter on its establishment in 1988 gave them the motivation to do this without the need for them to be otherwise accountable for their actions.
From ancient times, whether from biblical records or the records of the historians of early civilisations, the role of the Sun in providing good and bad harvests was well known. For the Egyptians, who even worshipped Amun Ra (the god of the Sun and air), the passage of seven years of plenty followed by years of famine was the subject of official planning. In 1801 the English astronomer William Herschel was the first to note a correlation between a level of solar activity and climate after his discovery of an inverse relationship between the wheat price and the cyclic variations in solar activity. During years of high solar activity, the wheat price dropped because there were typically good harvests and wheat was plentiful. The opposite occurred during years of low solar activity.
In many isolated rural communities, farmers and fisher-folk still confidently plan their activities on the solar and lunar cycles, without any understanding of the detailed science or access to broadcast weather forecasts. The place where the agricultural effect of the 11-year solar minimum is most marked is Russia. In 2008/9 they had drought conditions and it is the same this year. The outer layer of Earth’s atmosphere at the thermal interface with space – the troposphere – warms during solar maximums and then cools during a solar minimum to one-tenth the heat. When it cools it shrinks, thereby reducing the radius of Earth’s atmosphere, solely due to the solar cycles, as far more heat is lost.
Solar maximums occur when the sun’s poles swap places, approximately every 11 years, and every solar cycle is different in its level of electromagnetic activity. Every so often a group of relatively inactive solar cycles occurs. Each group of inactive cycles is called a Grand Solar Minimum. There is a mathematical synchronicity to these cycles which have been the subject of intensifying research since mankind first aspired to venture into outer space. Yet not all of the Sun’s activities can be forecast…CMEs for example.
In 1976 the late John A. Eddy, a US astronomer identified a close correlation between the solar cycles and climate in both phase and amplitude since 1600AD. He did this by closely analysing all of the Grand Solar Minimums of the last thousand years. In 1988 the Russian geophysicist Dr E Borisenkov reported on his studies over 7,500 years of history, noting how, during 18 separate quasi-bicentennial cycles, warming was associated with periods of high solar activity and cooling was associated with low solar activity.
The UN IPCC ignored the work of Borisenkov when, from the “get-go”, it began its first raft of exaggerated warnings about the potentially disastrous effects of human “carbon emissions” causing Anthropogenic Global Warming, for which absolutely no scientific evidence existed or is possible (as is still the case today!). The other good reason to accept the Russian position is because their climate modelling is accurate.
Just as Earth’s moon provides a gravitational pull on the tides, the Sun’s changed electromagnetic effect also changes its gravitational relationship with Earth and other planets (together with their moons) within the solar system. Changes to the solar/Earth magnetosphere perturb the Earth’s tectonic plates.
While the UN IPCC-allied scientists (together with their expensive computer climate models) downplayed the solar cycles’ impacts, many non-aligned scientists from NASA (retirees) and elsewhere continued to shadow and support the work of the Russians. These include Professor Valentina Zharkova (and her team) based at Northumbria University (UK) and John L. Casey (formerly of NASA), the author of three influential books: “Dark Winter”, “Cold Sun” and “Upheaval”. A notable physicist, Dr Harrison Schmitt, at age 85 is still today actively working on the design of fuels for use in nuclear fission. Some years ago, he led a 40 scientists/astronauts’ revolt against NASA’s unwarranted and shady reorganisation of records to support the UN IPCC climate theories. From my observations, the group of sceptics is growing stronger as scientists defect from the UN IPCC position. Yet the fraud grows ever larger.
The various researcher members of the Russian Academy of Sciences conclude that every time that Total Solar Insolation (“TSI”) reached its quasi-bicentennial peak, ample evidence existed that a period of global warming began, but with a time delay of 20 years, plus or minus 8 years, defined by the thermal inertia of the ocean. They concluded that each quasi bicentennial reduction in TSI, in turn, gave rise to a “Little Ice Age”. This is also supported by NASA’s own data and yet it is differently emphasised.
During the period called by Western scientists the “Little Ice Age”, which ran from about 1280 to 1850AD, there were a number of warm periods and a variety of Grand Solar Minimums, so the Russian scientists regard them as not one but four separate minimums, each with separately identifiable ice ages. This delineates the “Wolf Minimum” (from 1280 to 1350), the “Sporer Minimum” (from 1450 to 1550), the “Maunder Minimum” (from 1645 to 1715) and the “Dalton Minimum” (from 1790 to 1820) as separate cold periods. These were sometimes accompanied by one or more years without a summer, due to volcanism.
The space age led to NASA launching a network of satellites to monitor the temperature in 1979. Since that time regular and consistent monitoring of the average global temperature for the atmosphere (the “Lower Troposphere”, where we live) has been recorded by two agencies with the contract to do so, and the result is published within a few days of month-end. As of the end of September 2020, the global average temperature showed, for the 41 years since 1979, an increase (on average) of 0.14oC. per decade, or 1.4oC. per century if the atmosphere continues to warm at the current rate. The Russian scientists, supported by many others, observe that there is a close correlation between the record of temperatures from all sources and the levels of activity of recent solar cycles numbered 17 to 24 inclusive, so they now expect a period of profound cooling during the period to the year 2100.
In the light of the satellite records of global warming at 0.14oC per decade and a drop in temperature for 30 years before that, recent UN IPCC-centric warnings of ongoing decadal warming of 0.4oC and higher for the next 100 years are not credible. They are just sophistry built upon sophistry without any basis in reality.
The solar cycles of the 20th century included three of the most active solar cycles in the last 4,000 years which likely accounts for the warming to date of the “Modern Warm Period”. It certainly is a better fit than ascribing causation to increased atmospheric CO2, because that correlation was destroyed during the 30 year period from 1945 to 1975 when CO2 rose and the temperature dropped. It also explains the temperature pause from 1999 to 2015 (inclusive) when the rate of human “carbon emissions” accelerated.
The role of the sun in determining the weather experienced by the entire solar system and the role of that weather in establishing either a warming or cooling trend for Earth is well known, so a public web site provides regular daily updates of data from the official statistics. (www.spaceweather.com )
A Grand Solar Minimum is now beginning, although there is still disagreement of how cold it will get. The last graph of the presentation by Russia’s Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov (at 15 minutes 26 seconds) at the link below, shows how they rated the end of solar cycle 24 with the likely progress of solar cycles 25 & 26. With the benefit of hindsight, his forecast published 6 years ago is demonstrably on point.
Slide after slide in Dr Habibullo’s above presentation supports what many independent Western scientists regard as the Russian superiority in their analysis of the solar influence. Russian superiority is founded on their unbiased views about the relationship between temperature and atmospheric levels of CO2. UN IPCC researchers still persist in the re-interpretation of the results of the Vostok ice core analysis which had demonstrated that over history (geological, ancient and modern) the changes to atmospheric CO2 trailed changes in temperature rather than led them. On the basis of the acknowledged drop in global surface temperature from 1945 to 1975 and from Dr Habibullo’s graph at 3 minutes and 2 seconds on the above linked video, assertions by the UN IPCC that human carbon emissions cause climate change are disproven.
The major space agencies still have a focus on the sun. So probes and other activities will clarify areas where the science is still immature and confidence in the detail is not yet universal. Meantime the data published include the statistics on sunspots because the more numerous and active the sunspots, the greater the strength and density of the solar wind. The inverse of the strength of the solar wind is the rate of the influx of galactic cosmic rays (these come from far off galactic star explosions). The solar wind excludes many cosmic rays from the solar system. There are ongoing studies of how the cosmic rays affect cloud nucleation and magma stimulation. As we are moving from a solar minimum between cycles 24 and 25 to the lesser activity of cycle 25 (as it increases) the currently high level of cosmic rays reduces the safe time astronauts can remain in space. Note that all planets in the solar system are affected by the variation in the solar activity.
The changed magnetosphere perturbs the Earth’s tectonic plates, and studies have shown a correlation between volcanism and Grand Solar Minimums. So it shouldn’t be any surprise that volcanism has again risen sharply since 2018 (when fatalities that year amounted to about the same as the total for the previous 18 years). In 2019 a major volcanic eruption occurred in the Pacific Ocean and yet it only rated mention because it left a large lake of pumice floating on the surface. Four times as many volcanoes are under the sea as on land. This is an area where their contribution to the heating of the ocean and West Antarctic glaciers is glossed over. Russia and China are now well into preparations for a major cooling event based on their view of solar cycles. They accept the next Grand Solar Minimum has started and know the likely consequences.
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