Since January this year, The BFD has been polling the same question at the end of each month so that we could track changes in our readers’ preferences in the lead up to the election on October 17th.
As this is the election month and the election date is only a few days away we published our final and hopefully most accurate poll of the year of our readers’ voting intentions.
Each month we have analysed the previous month’s results so that we could see which parties are gaining, losing or maintaining support in the lead up to election day.
January’s poll results:
- ACT 49%
- National 30%
- New Conservative 17%
- Maori Party 1%
- NZ First – no support
- Undecided 3%
February’s poll results:
- ACT 52% +3%
- National 27% -3%
- New Conservative 17%
- Maori Party-no support -1%
- NZ First 1% +1%
- Undecided 3%
March’s poll results:
- ACT 49% -3%
- National 26% -1%
- New Conservative 20% +3%
- Maori Party-no support
- NZ First 2% +1%
- Undecided 1% -2%
The poll results for April were:
- ACT 54% +5%
- National 23% -3%
- New Conservative 19% -1%
- Maori Party- no support
- NZ First 1% -1%
- Undecided 2% + 1%
The poll results for May were:
- ACT 44% -10%
- National 26% +3%
- New Conservative 23% +4%
- Maori Party- no support
- NZ First 3% +2%
- Undecided 2%- no change
The poll results for June were:
- ACT 55% +11%
- National 26% no change
- New Conservative 15% -8%
- Maori Party 1% + 1%
- NZ First 1% -2%
- Labour 2% +2%
- Undecided 0% -2%
The poll results for July were:
- ACT 41% -14%
- National 43% +17
- New Conservative 13% -2%
- Maori Party 1% no change
- NZ First 0% -1%
- Labour 2% no change
- Undecided 0% no change
The poll results for August were:
- ACT 41% % no change
- National 39% -4%
- New Conservative 18% +5%
- Maori Party 0% -1%
- NZ First 0% no change
- Labour 0% -2%
- Undecided 0% no change
- Other 2% +2%
This is what all our BFD polling results from January up until August looked like:
August’s poll had the ACT party in front with the same solid 41% it had the month before. National was in second place with 39% down 4% and New Conservative remained in third place with 18% up 5%.
NZ First support remained at zero while support for the Maori party had dropped 1% to 0%. In August none of our readers were undecided and for the first time since we started polling, there was support of 2% showing for the “Other” option.
The August poll was taken after Judith Collins became the leader of the National party.
The poll results for September were:
- ACT 47% +6%
- National 37% -2%
- New Conservative 15% -3%
- Maori Party 0% no change
- NZ First 0% no change
- Labour 0% no change
- Undecided 0% no change
- Other 1% -1%
Last month’s poll had the ACT party still in front with an increased 6% support. National was still in second place with 37% down 2% and New Conservative remained in third place with 15% down 3%.
The final poll results for October were:
- ACT 44% -3%
- National 41% +4%
- New Conservative 15% no change
- Maori Party 0% no change
- NZ First 0% no change
- Labour 0% no change
- Undecided 0% no change
- Other 2% +1%
Our final poll this close to the election shows National gaining 4% and the ACT party losing 3% but they are still in the lead. New Conservative support remains in third place with 15%.
Of course the only poll that counts is the poll on Saturday.
Whatever you do, please make sure that your vote is cast this election. Now is not the time for complacency or ambivalence.