The latest 1News/Colmar Brunton poll is out and shows that the slide in the polls for National has at least been halted. It also shows that Labour has lost 5 points, and whilst they can still govern alone the slide is on for them as often happens in the election campaign.
Minor parties are gaining a bit of cut through finally with the campaign now fully underway.
Those minor parties are chipping away and it is coming off of Labour.
The latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll sees a drop of 5% support for Labour since the last poll in late July – they’re now sitting on 48%.
National dips slightly to 31%.
The results will be put to the party leaders Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins tonight during the First Live Leaders’ Debate on TVNZ1 and 1News.co.nz at 7pm.
ACT has continued to gain support up to 7% – translating to nine seats in Parliament.
The party last had nine MPs after the 1999 and 2002 elections, and leader David Seymour has been the party’s sole MP since 2014.
The Green Party has also clawed itself back from teetering on the threshold, sitting on 6% – which would be enough to see them returned to Parliament.
Other minor parties have also seen a rise, with New Conservative pulling up to 2%, The Opportunities Party (TOP) gaining ground up to 1%, and Advance NZ making an appearance on 1%.
In the Preferred Prime Minister rankings, Ardern remains steady on 54%, a number that hasn’t changed since June. Collins dropped 2%, down to 18%.
There is 7% wasted vote in this poll. What is also not declared is the number of undecideds.
My understanding is that neither UMR nor Curia have the Greens as high, both with them under 5%.
If the Greens are under 5% then there is a 10 point gap between Labour and National/Act. A 5% swing will means even scores.
The campaign is now under way proper. Labour are in the box seat but campaigning and debates have a habit of changing how thing shake out.
Labour will need to cling on and hope they don’t slide too far. Their low profile, small target plan may actually hinder them as other parties get traction on policy. Labour has told us there is a plan but based on their performance in government then that is a very thin plan based on a status quo of failure.
Every other party, but more importantly National and Act must present a clear and different plan. So far that is starting to happen.
It’s early days, and a week is a long time in politics.