What does a dyed-in-the-wool, cloth capped Labour supporter think about the rise of Judith Collins to National party leader? Chris Trotter is not one to throw nasty barbs or insults; he says what he thinks. And Trotter admits that now that Judith has made it to the top in the National party, he is scared.
Scared? Of Judith? Surely Trotter isn’t as feeble as that? Of course he isn’t. Chris Trotter is scared because he thinks she just might win the election.
Judith Collins scares me. For the first time since National’s caucus replaced Don Brash with John Key, the party has chosen a leader who can win. The new Leader of the Opposition is a clear-sighted defender of the neoliberal order who is prepared to give when she needs to give, and takes no prisoners when she doesn’t. Collins is articulate, shrewd and possesses a disarming (if somewhat cruel) sense of humour. Those on the left who dismiss her as a major electoral turn-off will, almost certainly, be proved wrong. She has what it takes to manoeuvre Jacinda and Labour onto the defensive. And, as everybody knows: explaining is losing.
A nice and fair description of the new National leader. She definitely will be able to manoeuvre Labour and Jacinda onto the defensive. Jacinda is Labour’s trump card, but she has no substance. She is full of hugs and slogans but not much else. You only have to think about the deconstruction job that Collins did on Phil Twyford over Kiwibuild. Now Collins has her sights firmly fixed on Jacinda herself.
Collins understands that delivering neoliberalism straight leaves voters with a sour taste in their mouths. It goes down much better when fizzed-up with lashings of law-and-order rhetoric – along with generous splashes of “culture wars” liqueur. That Collins, herself, happily owns up to being a “social liberal”, only adds an extra kick to her political cocktail.
And Judith has already said that the average New Zealander is not interested in ‘culture wars’, and she is right. Most people are more interested in looking after their families, paying the mortgage and keeping their jobs which are things that are by no means certain in our almost post-COVID world.
It’s this political ambiguity that makes National’s new leader so dangerous. Collins does not belong to the crazy Christian Right faction of her caucus, but neither is she a member of the Nikki Kaye, Amy Adams, Chris Bishop “soppy liberal” wing of the party. (Although she may, from time-to-time, be found voting alongside them.) For a long while now this ambiguity has constituted an unhelpful obstacle to her advancement. With the right rejecting her as too left, and the left dismissing her as too right, she has fallen repeatedly between the two stools. But now, with both factions severely discredited, being a little bit country and a little bit rock-n-roll has proved to be no bad thing at all.
This must be hard for Chris Trotter to write. He can see why Judith Collins is potentially so popular; she has a certain common sense and reality about her that Jacinda will never be able to match, with her hugz and feelz…
When pitted against Jacinda, however, it’s Collins’ neoliberalism which is likely to prove most deadly. Labour’s leader has never been that strong on economic issues, and of late she has taken to including a few anti-neoliberal flourishes in her keynote speeches. Collins and her propaganda team will seize upon these as proof of Labour’s reversion to type, and will do everything they can to cast Jacinda as an old-fashioned borrow-and-spend socialist. That the Prime Minister has never been anything of the kind will only make it harder for her to present a clear alternative to Collins’ orthodox economic prescriptions.
I disagree here, Chris. This Labour-led government did abide by the fiscal restraints of the previous government for a while, but now with COVID, the purse strings have been well and truly loosened and we are now billions in debt. Billions. If that is not borrow-and-spend, I am not sure what is.
Up until now, Labour’s strategists have thought it wisest to offer only the broadest of policy commitments. While National was led by Simon Bridges and Todd Muller this was a sound strategy. Jacinda’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis has elevated her to the status of national saviour, and with Bridges and Muller idiotically concentrating their fire on Covid-19-related glitches for which the Government could hardly be held responsible, Labour’s lead over National in the polls remained substantial. In the glow of Jacinda’s success, a detailed manifesto seemed unnecessary.
But wait… there’s more…
The election of Collins as National’s leader renders Labour’s broad-brush strategy politically untenable. She is far too clever to repeat Bridges’ and Muller’s mistakes. Labour and its leader will not be faulted for their handling of the public health emergency precipitated by Covid-19’s arrival in New Zealand. Instead, Collins will concentrate her fire on Jacinda’s alleged failure to present a coherent and detailed recovery plan for a New Zealand economy devastated by the impact of the virus. She will attribute this “failure” to the weakness of Labour’s team, contrasting the Ardern-led Government’s paucity of talent with what she will insist is her own stronger and more competent government-in-waiting. All of Collins’ cruel humour will be unleashed on Labour’s lesser vessels. Social media will be flooded with painfully funny memes and attack videos.
And Collins will be right. Labour’s team is weak in the extreme.
Jacinda and Labour can counter Collins in one (or both) of two ways. The first relies upon the Prime Minister’s superlative communication skills. If the Prime Minister can parry Collins’ attacks by making the voters laugh at her, then the Opposition’s strategy will fail. Rather than become angry or defensive in the face of Collins’ jibes, Jacinda needs to make fun of the thinking behind her criticisms. If she can expose the emptiness of National’s claims of superior competence and strength, for example, or make a joke out of her own government’s failures (KiwiBuild!) then the Leader of the Opposition will herself become an object of mirth and scorn. If Jacinda is able to embarrass her opponent severely, then there is every chance Collins will reveal her dark side. That would be “Game Over”.
Not a chance, Chris. Jacinda making fun of Kiwibuild, the scheme that promised so much but delivered practically nothing will be music to Judith’s ears. If you don’t think Judith could turn such a sad effort back to her advantage, you really don’t know her at all.
The second way to counter Collins’ attack-lines is for Labour to give Jacinda a comprehensive and popular recovery package to defend. The Prime Minister is a quick study and, as she demonstrated during the Level 4 Lockdown, has an impressive ability to master voluminous and complex detail. Properly briefed, and personally committed to the message she has been asked to deliver, Jacinda performs magnificently.
Again, I beg to differ. First, Labour thought it would get away without any real election policies as the opposition was clearly in such disarray. Such arrogance and stupidity will come back to haunt them now. Secondly, Jacinda has a very poor understanding of most issues, particularly economic issues. Her response to the issue of COVID-19 was very slow. People were screaming at her to close the borders. It was some time before she was persuaded to actually do anything. We were really concerned that we might have the same infection rates as Italy. That we did not is more attributable to good luck than good management on the part of Jacinda. Her vanity project, the mosque memorial, was far more important to her than the pandemic.
Throughout this term, Labour has failed to do what Michael Joseph Savage’s government did: introduce radical and comprehensive changes and then spend every waking political hour for the next three years explaining to the voters why they were worth keeping. It’s a bloody big ask to set Jacinda the task of selling even a mildly radical recovery plan in just 6 weeks – although if anybody can do it, she can. With considerable justification, however, Collins is betting that such a recovery plan is beyond the capacity of the 2020Labour Party. Presumably, that is why she told RNZ’s Kathryn Ryan that National has some “mildly radical” plans of its own.
You can bet your bottom dollar they will not be mildly radical left-wing plans! Which is why we should all be scared of a Judith Collins-led National Party – very scared.
I’m glad you’re scared, Chris. Don’t take it personally. Any Labour voter should be scared. Judith Collins is about to show up the government for the bunch of inept amateurs that it really is. I can’t wait.
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