Dear Professor Gerrard

• Part one here.
• Part two here.

This year even suppliers of seed will be unable to meet their contracts, which means serious carry-over problems into 2020 for cropping farmers.  Herds are being culled and yet beef prices are higher during the time of a massive cull,  due to the desperate Chinese buying….

In 2008 the earth was entering the regular 11-year solar minimum between solar cycles numbered sc23 and sc24, which also caused cold climate crop losses.  The eleven-year cycles almost always deliver problems at the two years of minimum solar activity, but what is now happening is extraordinary. The data supporting NASA and NOAA’s change of heart can easily be found on their own web sites, or if you take the time to look at the main public web site that watches the causative climate factors arriving via the longer-range solar cycles… www.spaceweather.com .  (For this site to be of much use you will need to monitor it for a year or two to see how the data is trending.) 

2019 is at the same point of the following 11-year solar minimum as in 2008, just that it will likely be a deeper minimum than that of 2008 (again, as already forecast by NOAA and NASA).  We are in a descent into what is already being called by some, the “Eddy Minimum” (after the name of the eminent astronomer John Eddy).  We are today plumb between numbered cycles sc24 and sc25 and descending into a sort of hell as sc26 is expected to be the worst solar cycle of the unfolding series (or so the experts expect – while some others expect much longer and deeper cooling). 

The fact that the Orwellian news media doesn’t tell us what is happening is neither here nor there.  We fraud investigators know where to look and how to discriminate between the pattern and the noise of chaos.   Between informal news stories from the public and the official lies supported by supposedly “orthodox crooks” (conspiring to launder an image they both profit from and favour), the actual stats don’t lie, even if they are promptly hidden. 

Empirically, a Grand Solar Minimum is past due from analysis of the timing of past cycles and arriving NOW…(you can follow this by regularly watching the stats unfold on spaceweather.com) 

• The sunspot numbers are less –  which means less electromagnetic solar activity
• Less electromagnetic solar activity – which means less Total Solar Irradiance hitting earth’s atmosphere
• The solar wind is less – which means an increased influx of galactic cosmic rays
• More cosmic rays – which means greater nucleation of water vapour into low-level clouds
• Greater cloud cover – which correlates on balance with colder atmospheric temperatures 

And right now we are approaching the biggest lows of sun spot numbers and the biggest highs of cosmic ray influx in 100 years.  The biggest lows of Total Solar Irradiance don’t matter too much because the variation isn’t huge, even if it is orders of magnitude more significant than the “bought and paid for” UN IPCC computer models allow.  The changed magnetosphere and cosmic ray influx is, however, a big deal.  We Kiwis are OK because we are on the Pacific ring of fire.  Sub-oceanic volcanoes seem to be obligingly doing what the land-based volcanoes are also doing and popping their corks.  With four times as many sub-sea volcanoes as land-based, this could perhaps account for why the Pacific is anomalously warming, even though the bulk of warming inevitably comes from the sun’s rays.  It ain’t just the sun that heats it – and certainly not at depths below the thermo cline where the solar rays don’t have a direct warming effect.  So we Kiwis may not experience the cold of a Grand Solar Minimum until the tectonic plates settle down a bit.  If you think I am wrong, then perhaps you would like to offer a credible alternative to what else was happening down below when huge rafts of pumice appeared on the surface of the ocean this year? 

If I was sitting in your academic castle I would be reading what folk like Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov and Dr Valentina Zharkova have to say about the troubles to come.  Because that is more likely where the causation for significant climate change lies than the feeble efforts of mankind to burn the earth’s endowment of fossil fuels.  Will it be a three times eleven-year solar cycle minimum, like the Dalton Minimum, or will it be a six times eleven-year cycle like the Maunder Minimum?  Obviously no-one really knows for sure.  Both were extremely cold and then there were far fewer humans to feed.  But this brute is on its way and web sites like “Adapt2030” have been monitoring it for a few years…following on from the Russians.