OPINION

The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll is out and the coalition has slipped somewhat but is still ahead in terms of seats and is still in a position to govern. But this poll does show how precarious the situation is with MMP: a few percentage points change and we are looking at a change of government.

PartySupportChange compared to Feb 2023
National37.1%down 0.3
Labour25.7%up 0.4
Green14.6%up 3.3
ACT7.2%down 2.8
NZ First6.3%down 1.1
Maori4.6%up 2.1

For the decided party vote, National is down 0.3 points on last month’s poll to 37.1% while Labour improves marginally to 25.7% (+0.4 points). The Greens jump up by another 3.3 points taking them to 14.6%, while ACT drop even further back to 7.2% (-2.8 points).

The smaller parties are NZ First on 6.3% (-1.1 points) and Te Pati Maori on 4.6% (+2.1% points).

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.6%, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.5%, Democracy NZ on 0.3%, Vision NZ is on 0.2%, New Conservatives on 0.2%, and the rest combined making up the remaining 0.8%.

5.6% of voters were undecided after probing. 

This month’s results are compared to March’s Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll.

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:

Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll

National is down 1 seat on last month to 47 while Labour is unchanged on 32. The Greens jump up to 15 seats (up four) while act drop back to 13 (down four). NZ First drop 1 seat to 9 while Te Pati Maori is unchanged on 6 seats.

This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have no overhang seats.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 64 seats is down 6 from last month while the Centre-Left is up 3 seats to 56.

On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government.

Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll

Christopher Luxon continues to slide in the net favourability stakes. While this may not be a concern at the moment, if it continues he will be the one holding National back and Nat MPs will start looking askance at Luxon. On the plus side, Chris Hipkins’s support has cratered too:

Christopher Luxon’s net favourability is down 2 points on last month to -7% while Chris Hipkins’s score is down 8 points to -6%. This is the first time a Labour Leader has had a negative net favourability in the Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll. 

David Seymour is down 3 points to -11% while Winston Peters is down 6 points to -18%. 

This month we also asked respondents about their views on National Party Minister Chris Bishop who had a net favourability of -4% and new Green Party Leader Chloe Swarbrick who had a net favourability of -19%. 

Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll

A mixed-bag poll there, but we aren’t too far away from the budget (30 May), so let’s see what that delivers for the coalition.

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...