Opinion
It’s an article of faith among the chattering classes that the nasty proles are simply too stupid to be allowed to think for ourselves. We’re witless sheep only fit to be herded hither and yon by “smarter” people. They even have a name for their snobbish delusion: “nudge theory”. Left to our own devices, we’re dangerous prey for “misinformation and disinformation”.
Not to mention conspiracy theories.
Oh, yes, the conspiracy theories. The elite classes love to sneer at the oiks for supposedly believing all manner of outlandish conspiracy theories (unlike the favoured conspiracy theories of the left, such as the BLM narrative, or the risible 1619 Project).
But do we, really? New Zealand researchers recently conducted a study looking into conspiracy beliefs. Keeping in mind the caveats one always should about so-called social “science”, the results are interesting. Especially regarding the so-called “rabbit hole”: the idea that, once someone believes in one conspiracy theory, they fall into an endlessly self-reinforcing pit of delusion.
There has been a great deal of research on conspiracy theories published in the past few years. We now know more about how many people believe them, as well as the psychological and political factors that correlate with that belief.
One of the biggest problems with such research is that it is invariably tainted, to an even higher degree than most science, by researchers’ own, often unexamined, biases and “psychological and political factors”. For instance, in this particular study, two to three of the ten (20-30%) “conspiracy theories” are in fact beliefs that are at the very least highly plausible, and in at least one case supported by a plethora of evidence.
“COVID-19 is a biological weapon intentionally created and released by China”
“Democrats stole the 2020 US Presidential election from Donald Trump by creating fraudulent ballots”
“A powerful and secretive group, known as the New World Order, are planning to rule the world”
That there was electoral fraud in 2020 is not a conspiracy theory, it’s a hard fact, as attested by numerous convictions. Further than that, it’s also indisputable that Democrat states changed electoral rules in a manner that favoured their party. This is what journalist Tim Poole describes as “legal, but grossly unfair”.
As for Covid-19 as a biological weapon, it’s not only plausible but well supported by evidence. It’s a fact that, in the years leading up to the pandemic, the Chinese military ordered research into weaponising coronaviruses. It’s also a fact that Chinese labs at the epicentre of the first outbreaks were conducting dangerously reckless gain-of-function experiments with coronaviruses closely related to what emerged as Covid-19. It’s also a fact that not just the Chinese government, but also Western researchers, engaged in a systematic conspiracy to cover up the origins of the virus.
This makes a mockery of the self-serving platitudes of the conspiracy theory researchers, sneering about “despite the theory being roundly rejected by the scientific community”.
In that case, they were referring to the specific theory of “chemtrails”, but the principle remains: we know that the “scientific community” engaged in a systematic conspiracy to cover up the origins of the Covid virus. Which begs the question of how much we can trust them about anything else.
Still, in a poke in the eye of the Kate Hannahs and Byron C. Clarks, the research found that conspiracy beliefs were nowhere near as widespread, nor proliferating as fast, as those whose funding on convincing governments otherwise would have it.
While there were definitely some believers in our sample, most participants disagreed with each of the theories.
The most popular theory was that “pharmaceutical companies (‘Big Pharma’) have suppressed a cure for cancer to protect their profits”. Some 18 per cent of the sample group agreed when first asked.
The least popular was the theory that “Covid-19 ‘vaccines’ contain microchips to monitor and control people”. Only 2 per cent agreed […]
Despite contemporary concerns about a “pandemic of misinformation” or “infodemic”, we found no evidence that individual beliefs in conspiracy theories increased on average over time […]
While we only tracked participants for six months, other studies over much longer time frames have also found little evidence that beliefs in conspiracy theories are increasing over time.
It’s particularly worth noting that this survey took place during the second year of the Covid pandemic, when lockdowns were still being imposed and anti-government protests were growing.
Despite contemporary concerns about a “pandemic of misinformation” or “infodemic”, we found no evidence that individual beliefs in conspiracy theories increased on average over time.
In other words, government-funded hacks like the Disinformation Project, and hysterical politicians like Jacinda Ardern, are in fact, conspiracy theorists.
This relative stability is interesting, because one criticism of conspiracy theories is that they may not be “falsifiable”: what seems like evidence against a conspiracy theory can just be written off by believers as part of the cover up.
Yet people clearly do sometimes decide to reject conspiracy theories they previously believed.
NZ Herald
This means that “disinformation researchers” who claim otherwise are — drumroll, maestro — peddling a conspiracy theory.
(As I always advise readers, read the original study for yourself if you can.)