A FREE taste of an Insight Politics article by writer Stephen Berry.
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Predictions for 2024 and How Did I Go For 2023
In March of this year, I made a number of predictions for election year, despite conceding it was probably unwise to do so. However, rather than listen to my own advice I’m going to make some more for 2024 after reviewing how close I came in 2023.
Labour’s election night support will be lower than the 31.2% average they polled at the end of 2022.
Labour received 26.9% of the vote. 1 point.
The Maori Party will win more electorate seats but this won’t result in an overhang (a party that wins more electorate seats than seats they’re entitled to by the party vote increases the number of seats above 120).
The Maori Party certainly did win more electorate seats. They won six, however their party vote of 3.1% meant that these seats resulted in an overhang. Half a point.
NZ First will enter Parliament but won’t be needed to form a government.
New Zealand First crossed the threshold, getting 6.1% of the party vote. Alas, they were then required to form a Government with National and Act. Half a point.
No other extra-parliamentary parties will enter Parliament.
New Zealand First was the only non-parliamentary party to enter Parliament. One point.
National and Act form a coalition government.
Technically, this is correct even though National also formed a coalition agreement with New Zealand First. One point.
4 points out of 5 is the equivalent of an A-. Not bad.
Now onto my predictions for 2024. There have been five polls since the election, one from Curia for the Taxpayer’s Union, two from Roy Morgan and two from Curia for corporate clients. The change in support shown is compared to the election night result. Assuming Te Pati Maori hold their electorates, there will be a 121-seat Parliament, down two seats from the current 123-seat Parliament.
- At the end of 2024, polling will still predict an overhang in Parliament.
- At the end of 2024, support for National/Act/NZ First will still exceed support for Labour/Greens/Te Pati Maori.
- Chloe Swarbrick will be the next Greens co-leader.
- This year’s Waitangi celebrations will be marred by violence.
- The adjustment of income tax brackets to inflation will be implemented in the 2024/25 budget.
- The Government will not back down on cancelling the previous Labour Government’s smoking reforms.
- The coalition government will still govern in its current form at the end of 2024.
- New Zealand’s inflation rate will drop below 4% by the end of 2024.
- The Government will announce that charter schools are ready to open in the first school term of 2025 by the end of the year.
- Chris Hipkins will still be leader of the Labour Party at the end of 2024. He will be saved by his performance in the house and the toxicity contained within the chalice of leading a defeated Labour Party through their first term in opposition.
Please feel free to add your political predictions for 2024 in the comments.
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