OPINION
A new poll has been released at The Post. It is called The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll. They are an Australian polling company, so I am unsure of their track record. Nonetheless, the poll confirms the general direction of the recent Roy Morgan Poll.
Labour’s support has plunged to a six-year low, slipping to a level not seen since Jacinda Ardern’s leadership reinvigorated the party, a new poll shows.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll gives National a strong lead on 36%. Chris Hipkins’ party has a 26% vote share, down 24 points since the last election.
It places the Greens on 12%, ACT on 11%, and Te Pati Maori on 3%.
NZ First inches past the threshold to enter Parliament without an electorate seat, on 6%.
But, Christopher Luxon can’t yet breathe a sigh of relief: if the poll result were replicated on election night it would deliver a hung Parliament.
These numbers give the right bloc 60 seats, to the left’s 53. NZ First would take seven seats – but Hipkins ruled out a post-election deal with NZ First late last month.
To ensure a comfortable majority – and avoid NZ First blocking legislation from the cross benches – Luxon would still need to strike a deal for support.
The Post
According to this poll from The Post, the concerning state of affairs for Chris Hipkins and his comrades in the Labour Party that the Roy Morgan poll signalled has been confirmed. Their popularity is rapidly dwindling, with support dropping to a concerning six-year low. They appear to be in a flat spin death spiral. It’s quite evident that the New Zealand public is beginning to question the effectiveness of their leadership and policies: even Blind Freddy can see it clearly now.
Meanwhile, National must be quietly celebrating as they dominate the poll, but their 36% support shows that they aren’t setting the voters’ imaginations afire. This is, however, a substantial lead against Labour and reflects the growing dissatisfaction with the current Labour Government and the desire for a change in direction.
As for Hipkins and Labour, their dwindling support stands at a mere 26%, a significant decline from the last election. I spoke to David Farrar yesterday about this on The Crunch, and he says it has never happened before in the history of New Zealand politics that a governing party has lost nearly 50% of their support in just three years. Governments change with a swing of as little as 5%. A 50% swing is devastating.
This sharp drop speaks volumes about their inability to connect with voters and deliver on their promises. It’s clear that the New Zealand public is questioning the competence of their leadership and their ability to effectively govern the country.
This is turning out to be an election based on competence.
The Greens seem steady on 12% support, while ACT continues to make waves with a strong 11% backing. If only the Greens would collapse, but their support is being shored up by voters of the hard left abandoning Labour.
It’s evident that the right bloc holds an advantage heading into the election. The combined support of National, ACT, and NZ First may put them in a comfortable position to form a government that reflects the values and aspirations of a significant portion of the electorate.
The election is far from over and anything can happen in the next six weeks. It will be interesting to see how Hipkins and Labour respond to these diminishing numbers and whether they can revive their campaign before it’s too late. As for the centre-right parties, this poll undoubtedly provides them with a glimmer of hope and the opportunity to present a compelling vision for a brighter future for New Zealand.
These poll results paint a bleak picture for Chris Hipkins and Labour, displaying a decline in support and raising questions about their ability to lead. On the other hand, the centre-right is gaining momentum, indicating a desire for change and an opportunity for a more conservative direction in New Zealand politics.
Finally, Christopher Luxon would have to be mad to leave NZ First out in the cold. He’d be far better off with a very comfortable majority and use NZ First as a bulwark against some of the more extreme policies of Act as well as let Winston Peters take on the non-woke things that someone as wet as Luxon would find unpalatable.
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