OPINION
The August Roy Morgan Poll is out, and blood is flowing out in vast quantities. Labour is staring down the barrel of a massive rout. But the news is not all good for the Right; National remains stalled and it is Act that is ascendant.
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for August 2023 shows a right-leaning National/ Act NZ coalition is set for victory at next month’s New Zealand Election, increasing their combined support by 1.5% points to 49% in August. The potential right-leaning coalition is well ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens coalition which is now on 37.5%, up 1.5% points in August.
This is the highest combined support for the two right-leaning parties so far this year. Of the two parties it is Act NZ which is surging, up 4% points to 18% in August – its highest level of support since December 2021 just after Christopher Luxon became the leader of National.
Support for National was actually down in August, by 2.5% points to 31%. The result in August was almost identical to the support levels of the two parties in December 2021 – the first full month with Luxon as leader of National. In December 2021 National had 31.5% support and Act NZ had 18.5%.
Roy Morgan
This is following the usual trend in elections of large parties bleeding support the closer they get to election day and minor parties benefiting as a result.
Christopher Luxon and his MPs can’t be happy with that low level of support and the constant bleeding of that support to the Act Party. National prefers Act to be very weak. This will be a concern for them.
Of course, it is easily fixable by stopping pretending they are just like Labour and standing for something other than ‘Not Labour’.
There wasn’t good news for the Labour Party in August with support dipping 2% points to 24% – the lowest level of support for the party that has won the last two elections since being elected at the 2017 election under former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.
Some of this support was picked up by the Greens which increased their support by 2.5% points to 12.5% in August – the highest level of support for the party for six months since February 2023.
Maori Party and New Zealand First both set to win seats in next Parliament
The results for August show another 14.5% (down 3% points from July) are supporting other parties outside the ‘big four’ including the Maori Party on 4%, down 2% points from July. The Maori Party is the only other party to currently be represented in the New Zealand Parliament with two seats.
In contrast, support is surging for New Zealand First, up for the second straight month and up 0.5% points to 5.5% in August. This is the highest level of support for New Zealand First for four years since August 2019 when the party was in a governing coalition with Labour.
At these levels of support both the Maori Party and New Zealand First are set to win seats in Parliament at next month’s election – although neither will have the balance of power.
A further 5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, down 1.5% points from a month ago, including 2% (down 2% points) who support The Opportunities Party, 0.5% (down 0.5% points) who support Democracy NZ and 2.5% (up 1% point) who support other parties.
Roy Morgan
The minnows need to give up. They won’t do anything other than gift extra seats to National and Labour.
With six more weeks to go, we can expect changes, but the trend is now very, very clear.
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