I love election campaigns and I love them more now that I’m not involved in one. Who would have thought? Now I can pick fights with radical trans activists without it becoming a morning scandal. I can comment on why policies such as free tampons in school are stupid without getting told off and I don’t have to give a second thought to the hundreds of things I’ve said on social media that might be publicised at an awkward time. Now I’m completely retired (except for that day job I’ve got to do for another 25 years), election campaigns have become the ultimate spectator sport; longer than a cricket test match with over a dozen teams playing all at once and the referee is restricted to tallying the final score with no red or yellow cards.
The first election I seriously followed was the 1996 MMP election: a unique event in itself after FFP elections since 1856 however, that aside, this year is shaping up to be much more exciting. Despite Parliament being multi-party with proportional representation, the media have usually defaulted to covering a two-horse race between National and Labour accompanied by some hangers-on and speculation about who might be kingmaker. While the post-2017 election negotiations were historic in that the largest party in Parliament was not part of the Government and the 2020 election result was historic because Labour won a majority alone, National and Labour remained the campaign’s focal point.
I’m usually loath to use terms such as ‘far-right’ to describe New Zealand political parties but for the sake of simplicity I have reviewed the results of each election since 1996 and assigned parties and their votes as being
- Far-right (Act, New Conservatives, Libertarianz, Christian Heritage) based on them being more ‘right wing’ than National.
- Centre-right (National).
- Centrist (NZ First, United Future, TOP) based on their potential to enter a coalition with both the mainstream major parties.
- Centre-left (Labour)
- Far-left (Greens, The Alliance, Democrats for Social Credit) based on them being more ‘left-wing’ than Labour
- Racial (Maori Party, Mana, Mauri Pacific, Mana Maori)
- Others including single issue and joke parties (Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party, McGillicuddy Serious, 99 MP Party, Ban 1080).
Unsurprisingly, the novelty of MMP in 1996 saw the lowest combined vote for National and Labour at 62.03%. Due to a strong result for NZ First at 13.35%, the combined vote for Far Right/Far Left/Racial (FR/FL/R) parties was a comparatively paltry 21.36%. The 2017 election had the highest combined support for National/Labour at 81.3% with the FR/FL/R parties attaining just 8.4% and centrist parties TOP and NZ First getting 9.6%. The 2023 election looks set to turn those trends on their heads, based on the average of the five most recent public polls (Talbot Mills, Taxpayers’ Union, 1 News, Roy Morgan, Newshub) giving National/Labour a combined 65.56%, their lowest combined support since 2002. Meanwhile, support for FR/FL/R parties is off the charts at 28.31%, beating the previous record set in 1999 by 4 percentage points. Are New Zealanders actually putting greater thought into their vote? Will political principle drive them to the polls or are we all simply bored with swapping between two major parties that differ in competence more than policy?
At the end of 2022, I made several predictions for the election result ten months away. I conceded this would be unwise at the time, still think it is an easy way to risk one’s credibility and, following Jacinda Ardern’s resignation as Prime Minister in January 2023, hoped nobody would remember anyway. However, here is a reminder:
- Labour’s election night support will be lower than the 31.2% average they polled at the end of 2022.
- The Maori Party will win more electorate seats but this won’t result in an overhang (a party that wins more electorate seats than seats they’re entitled to by the party vote increases the number of seats above 120).
- NZ First will enter Parliament but won’t be needed to form a government.
- No other extra-parliamentary parties will enter Parliament.
- National and Act form a coalition government.
On Tuesday, the Roy Morgan poll showed Labour polling at 26%, the Maori Party winning 8 seats which is more than the number of Maori electorates, New Zealand First on 5% and National/Act holding a 1 seat majority without needing the support of NZ First. Some people “hate to say I told you so”. I’m not one of those people so I will take it even with 71 days remaining in the campaign.
New Zealand First’s polling average is currently under the 5% threshold at 3.9% but the trend is strongly upward and while the party’s support is usually weakest after being in government, it is a strong opposition party. An election campaign is all opposition without responsibility if you’ve been outside Parliament for three years so Winston is in his element. Having been active in the Act Party during its many years in the wilderness and then seeing the polls shift in 2020 to show the party could attract 2 MPs, then 3, then 4 etc, I get a similar instinct about the trajectory of New Zealand First’s support.
During Act’s dark days we told ourselves plenty of comforting lies to remain motivated such as there being no point in reading the comments on Facebook, social media is not the real world and we just needed to get our message out to real people. I knew things were changing when the comments on Facebook were no longer a dreary list of jokes about Rimmer from Red Dwarf and jibes about being gifted Epsom by National. As the Act Party made its mark following firearm law reform, a strong stance on free speech and being the sole opponent of two-thirds of legislation passed during the previous term, social media feedback improved dramatically followed by quickly improving poll results. My gut and social media feed tells me New Zealand First is going in the same direction as they capitalise on their apparent opposition to Covid-19 lockdowns after 2020, the closure of Marsden Point and a promise not to join a Labour Government after the 2023 election.
You could accuse me of simply being in an echo chamber because there is a bewildering crossover in voter support for Act and New Zealand First but I am seeing a strong trend of social media users who may have previously reluctantly supported Act or flirted with a minnow party now saying they like what Winston Peters says and are considering voting for him. Winston often says things I like too but I have zero confidence that he will do anything he says he will.
Peters promised voters he would not be seduced by the baubles of office in 2005, only to become Foreign Minister in a Labour coalition. He promised to be the first to enter the Pike River mine and never showed up. He has promised to abolish the Maori seats during campaigns, never to mention it again while in office. He opposes co-governance yet was part of the Government that commissioned He Puapua. Peters has made a trademark of being anti-immigration yet signed the UN Compact on Migration while net migration into the country grew pre-Covid. In 2018, Peters attacked excessive tobacco excise taxes while serving in the Government that continued to implement them. In 2017 he promised to remove GST from “basic foods”, failed to explain what “basic foods” are in radio interviews and did nothing once in Government. However, NZ First has rehashed the policy for this election.
I have no doubt Peters will be re-elected on October 14. He knows what to say, how to say it and mysteriously finds just enough people who will forgive and forget his career of scumbaggery again and again and again. However Winston puts himself first, New Zealand last and I implore you to remember that no matter how sensible and seductive his policies sound, he won’t follow through on any of them.