According to the recent Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for July 2023, the right-leaning National/Act coalition has surged ahead with 47.5% support, up by 2.5% since June.

By contrast, the governing Labour/Greens coalition saw a decline in support to 35%, down by 5%. The rise in support for National brings them closer to a slim majority in Parliament if the trend continues for the October elections.

The poll also indicates potential wins for the Maori Party and New Zealand First in the upcoming Parliament.

Support for National has increased for the first time this year in July, up 3.5% points to 33.5%, while support for potential coalition partners Act NZ was down 1% point to 14%.

The rise in support for National means the two parties are set to capture a slim majority of seats in the Parliament if this level of support is repeated at this year’s election set for October.

There wasn’t good news for the governing Labour-Greens alliance with support dipping for both parties in July. Support for the Labour Party was down 4.5% points to 26% – the lowest level of support for Labour so far this year, while support for their governing partners the Greens dropped by 0.5% points to 9% – the lowest support for the party for a year since August 2022.

Support for the Maori Party is down slightly by 1% point to 6% while support for New Zealand First has increased by 2% points to 5% – its highest level of support since January. At these levels of support both the Maori Party and New Zealand First are set to win seats in the next Parliament.

A further 6.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 1.5% points from a month ago, including 4% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party, 1% (unchanged) who support Democracy NZ and 1.5% (down 0.5% points) who support other parties.

Roy Morgan

A pollster I talked to privately says these numbers are what they are seeing also, albeit with minor changes. Broadly speaking though, the arse has dropped out of Labour’s support, and it hasn’t been picked up by other parties on the left. Instead it’s gone to National and NZ First, which is pretty much what I have been saying would happen.

We still have a long way to go, but the signs are promising for a change of government.

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...