The latest Talbot Mills (formerly UMR) poll has been released and shows Labour and Chris Hipkins are experiencing a slump in their fortunes. The news isn’t all good for National, however, with them only rising by a single point, even as Labour slumps.

Labour’s support has crashed to its lowest point in at least four years in the latest Talbot Mills corporate poll, tumbling five points to 31 per cent, its lowest rating in that poll since at least 2019.

National rose one point to 36 per cent, as did likely governing partner Act which is on 12 per cent.

The Greens are up one point too, on 8 per cent.

Commentary released with the poll said it is the first time National has been ahead of Labour by five points or more. It is also the first time the centre-right has been ahead of the centre-left by five points or more since the 2017 election.

Te Pati Maori scored 4.2 per cent, NZ First was on 4 per cent, and TOP was on 2.9 per cent.

The bad news did not stop there for Labour, with leader Chris Hipkins tumbling six points to 32 per cent in the Preferred Prime Minister poll.

A fall that large is bad news for Labour, but National leader Christopher Luxon was unable to capitalise on Hipkins’ malaise. His preferred prime minister polling was still 11 points behind Hipkins on 21 per cent, down one point on the last poll.

Talbot Mills contacted 1036 people between June 28 and July 2. The poll has a margin of error of 3 per cent. The poll is produced for Talbot Mills’ corporate clients. The company also conducts Labour’s internal poll.

NZ Herald

This poll was taken in what I can only describe as a target-rich environment for the Opposition. Michael Wood was effectively sacked, Jan Tinetti was censured by the Privileges Committee and Kiri Allan seems to be in the middle of a career and personal meltdown.

With Labour’s support crumbling, National should be hoovering up that support, but they aren’t. Labour crashed five points and National picked up just one.

What is interesting in this poll, is that NZ First is on the cusp of being returned to Parliament on four per cent.

I believe that this election will revert to the normal phase of the electoral cycle, where the big parties lose support and the minor parties grow support. If that is the case, and we will get an idea with a couple more polls, then National’s pathways to victory get easier with every vote they, Act or NZ First pick up off Labour. It is increasingly looking like a vote for NZ First won’t be wasted, so expect to see NZ First surge now.

My ideal situation post-election is a three-way coalition between National, Act and NZ First, with the two smaller parties both acting in slightly different ways to curb the globalist tendencies of the National Party.

We are now less than 100 days from the election. Things just got exciting.

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...