The latest Roy Morgan Poll has been released and, with just 101 days left before the election, National still is not lifting their polling levels; in fact, they are slip, slip, sliding away.
Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for June 2023 shows a potential right-leaning National/Act NZ coalition has a clear lead on 45%, unchanged since May, ahead of the governing Labour/Greens coalition on 40%, down 3% points.
However, despite the clear lead for the right-leaning National/Act NZ potential partners, they are still two seats short of securing a majority of seats in the next Parliament.
Although the right-leaning parties are attracting higher support, the main Opposition Party, National, has seen its support decline in June, down 1.5% points to only 30%. This is the lowest level of support for National since Christopher Luxon became National Leader on November 30, 2021.
The decline in support for National has been a direct gain for Act NZ which increased its support by 1.5% points to 15% in June – the highest level of support for the right-leaning libertarian party for 18 months since December 2021.
Support for the governing Labour Party was down 0.5% points to 30.5% while support for their governing partners the Greens dropped by 2.5% points to 9.5% in June – the lowest support for the party for nearly a year since August 2022.
Although the right-leaning National/Act NZ potential coalition is in the box seat to form Government in October, they are still falling short of having enough support to win a majority in the Parliament with the cross bench set to determine who will form New Zealand’s next Government.
Maori Party support surges to a record high of 7% in June – and still in the balance of power
The results for June suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and the party in the box seat to determine the next Government is the Maori Party, with support surging 2.5% points to a record high of 7% in June.
Support for New Zealand First fell back in June, down 0.5% points to 3% and not enough support to win seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament.
A further 5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 1% point from a month ago, including 3% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party, 1% (unchanged) who support Democracy NZ and 2% (unchanged) who support the other parties.
Roy Morgan
National supporters still have their heads in the sand over their dreadful poll ratings. This is now National’s lowest rating since Luxon took over. I’ve been saying it now for a long time; the sycophants have been proven wrong and, so far, I have been proven right.
The wiser heads in National surely must be scratching their heads at what to do. Luxon is meanwhile being told to get out more so people can get to know him. This is what he has been doing, so you have to wonder if maybe they’d perform better if he campaigned from his basement like Joe Biden, because it seems the more people get to know him the more people there are who realise he is glib, insincere and inauthentic. Either that or perhaps he could start asking people if they know who he is.
The problem in both charts is the inevitable and inexorable slide downwards. Luxon gave them a bounce, but since then it has been a slippery slope.
Remember also that, in the past month, we had multiple scandals, ministerial sackings and endless bad news, yet Labour are still in the hunt and only they can rely on the Maori Party, whereas National can’t.
The damage a Labour/Green/Maori Party Government would cause would be catastrophic, yet it remains a valid pathway for Labour to retain the Treasury benches in October, and provides a better chance than National has of taking power.
Those who have said National should keep their powder dry are still hoping that there will be a reversal of fortunes for National. I remain unconvinced that Christopher Luxon can do it in just a bit over three months.
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