The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll was released yesterday and shows a return to a majority for the centre-right. National has eked out a 3% gain over the last month, while Labour has slid almost 2%. Act too has grown by nearly 2% meaning the centre-right could govern alone if these findings came to fruition in a general election.

PartySupportChange from last month
National37.0%+3.0
Labour33.4%-1.8
Greens9.9%+0.4
ACT12.4%+1.9
Maori1.5%-2.0
NZ First1.6%-1.0
Other4.2%-0.5

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:

Jacinda Ardern drops another 3 points to 37% while Christopher Luxon bounces up from 20% to 26%. David Seymour has a creditable 6.6% and in fourth place as Preferred PM is Chloe Swarbrick on a respectable 3.2%. That is higher than both Green co-leaders combined, with Marama Davidson on 1.4% and James Shaw 1.0%.

Preferred Prime MinisterThis monthChange from last month
Jacinda Ardern36.5%-3.0
Christopher Luxon25.9%+6.4
David Seymour6.6%-1.1
Chloe Swarbrick3.2%
Winston Peters2.6%-1.6
Marama Davidson1.4%
James Shaw1.0%

There is still more than a year to go until the general election in 2023 so much could happen in that time. However, the tide is still going out on Labour and still rising for the centre-right.

If Jacinda Ardern decides to quit, Labour will have a bloodbath on its hands.

Labour has finally ditched most of its draconian Covid controls, and issues polling shows you why. It no longer rates as a significant area of concern.

Labour is still aligned with Covid hero worship, but it is now the least concerning issue for voters. The four biggest concerns are Cost of Living (22%), Economy (15%), Health (7%), Law and Order (6%). In all of those areas Labour is horribly exposed and they literally have nothing in the kitbag to deal with any of those issues. Health is continuing to be a bugbear despite billions of extra spending in the area and a multi-million dollar decoupling of the health governance system in favour of a racist separation of health funding favouring Maori.

Their continued push towards co-governance is going to further erode their support as people begin to realise that Labour is ideologically wedded to the concept and is pushing on with the radical overhaul of Health, Justice, and Water, placing disproportionate control in the hands of Maori elites.

Labour are in a terrible place, but they will push on with their reforms because they know that National is the party of the status quo and will do little or nothing to unwind Labour’s reforms.


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...