Guy Hatchard PhD
daragrennie.com
Guy Hatchard PhD has a background in statistical analysis and was an employee of Genetic ID, a global safety testing and certification company.
We Didn’t See the Rocky Road Ahead
Yesterday morning I woke up to some unwelcome news. My best friend from university days has passed away. He was an active fit man looking forward to enjoying retirement. Early on he had a mild stroke, his heart became inflamed and the valves were damaged, unfortunately, his immune system was too depleted to respond to treatment. His story is familiar in these Covid times and shared by millions, yet nevertheless a deeply personal tragedy for his family. He was doubly vaccinated.
Feeling very sad, I decided then and there to write a short history of the political and scientific decision-making that brought NZ to where we are today. I am fortunate in having some access to these. Firstly my training in physics, logic, statistics, and the scientific method enables me to understand the principles that must be used to uncover truth from a science perspective. Secondly, I have enjoyed an email conversation with a few of the key players.
Everyone has an opinion about Covid, and they are rightly entitled to their views. It is probably the number one topic of conversation in every country in the world. It seemed clear from the start that this was an unusual illness that must be taken very seriously. The creation of an effective vaccine was a gold standard to be aimed at. Having worked at Genetic ID, a safety testing and certification company, I had a healthy suspicion of genetically engineered creations. So I wrote to a colleague who works in the field of gene therapy to ascertain his recommendations. I asked him whether the move to mRNA vaccines posed any unintended risks. He replied at length and discussed the technicalities but the essence was
“I do not believe they are more invasive [than traditional vaccines][ because they introduce into the body a short-lived molecule.”
At the time it appeared there were good theoretical reasons to suppose that mRNA vaccines were relatively harmless. These reasons have since been destroyed by the inexorable march of science. As a result, my colleague has revised his opinions.
The Scientific Advisors Supporting Jacinda
In January 2021, I was invited to correspond with some government advisors. Possibly my knowledge of network theory and my advocacy for the safety of natural health products were seen as useful skill sets to help ‘persuade’ a reluctant cohort of the public to trust a new vaccine technology. I had an open mind and entered into the conversation with enthusiasm. I admired the caution and competence that Jacinda Ardern’s government had already shown in trace and tracking, and in controlling our borders. Faced with a lot of uncertainty, Jacinda’s cautious ‘wait and see’ response and her trust of ‘science’ was a smart and politically adroit move.
As a statistically aware and competent person, I was already alert to the main risk factors for severe covid—comorbidities and age. My first contribution to the debate in January was to suggest:
- The NZ Government (including Jacinda’s star power) can take a lead in
encouraging other countries to recognise the need for a global elimination strategy to be put in place quickly. - Given the non-uniformity in outcomes and symptoms, there is a need to step up research to locate which historical health, diet, behavioural, and lifestyle factors correlate with severity of symptoms.
It was clear that 99+% of people would recover from Covid. Somewhere around 75% of people would do so rapidly without any lasting symptoms. As a scientist, I thought it was vital to understand what it was about these people that kept them so healthy. Neither of these thoughts greatly energised my correspondents who were naturally absorbed in the possibilities of the vaccination campaign that was just getting going. But by July, I was well aware from Israeli data that the Pfizer vaccine waned in effectiveness quite rapidly, as were my correspondents. There were obvious uncertainties in what approaches would work. I considered that vaccination could not be a stand alone solution, at the very least it had to be paired with early treatment options. Epidemiologist Michael Baker concurred and wrote to me on 2nd August:
“Thank you for that very lucid description of our current state of knowledge around Covid-19 and the uncertainties – which are large. I agree about the importance of trying to keep an open, evidence-informed debate about future options.” and “I agree with you about caution”.
At this point, a member of the David Skegg committee—the Strategic Covid-19 Public Health Advisory Group— was drawn into the conversation. He too struck a cautious note writing:
“It is important to realise that the vaccines are only in their first iteration. Israel is effectively Pfizer’s real life laboratory”
[…] “A protective immune signature is often elusive and vaccines are actually quite primitive in design”
[…] “I think you are right that studies have also shown that high vaccine coverage will not alone contain outbreaks.”
[…] “The recommendations in the Skegg report should be considered in the light of their recommendation for frequent review i.e. the possibility that what we know in November might lead to a significant change of timing or content of the response in 2022.”
The Skegg Committee has eight members. Four of the members are
epidemiologists with a focus on public health measures such as vaccination. Three are statistical modellers and one is an immunologist—an expert on vaccines. One member has an interest in respiratory diseases. It goes without saying that given the make-up of the committee, it was designed to make recommendations about how to roll out and monitor vaccination.
Distinguished and experienced though the membership was, it was not designed to evaluate questions and evidence about the physiological and genetic effects of mRNA vaccines. Nor did it have enough of a knowledge base to consider questions about covid treatment options. In essence, a decision had been taken early on that vaccination was going to trump early treatment in designing NZ’s response to the pandemic.
From my correspondence, it was clear that in the beginning the committee were satisfied that the Pfizer vaccine was highly effective and that they expected improved, even more effective vaccines to become available with time. In hindsight, this was a naive view, mediated by the rosy picture of 95% effectiveness that Pfizer was projecting.
A cursory glance at the history of attempts to control influenza through vaccination should have alerted them and everyone to the fact that treatment protocols were going to play a major part in our efforts to control the pandemic and reduce mortality. The aura of invincibility surrounding the word ‘vaccine’ was leading everyone to underestimate the challenges ahead.
To be continued…
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