The slow and inexorable slide of Labour continues in the polls with the latest Roy Morgan poll:
Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government was down 3.5% points to 46.5% in November as support for the Labour Party dropped 3.5% points to 36%. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 10.5%. This is the lowest level of support for Labour since the election of the Jacinda Ardern-led Government in October 2017 with 36.9% of the vote.
For the first time since the election support for the Parliamentary Opposition National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party has now overtaken the Government at 47% in November, up 3% points since October. However, it is worth noting there is no formal agreement between these three opposition parties.
Support rose for all three opposition parties with National up 0.5% points to 26.5%, Act NZ up 1.5% points to a new record high of 17.5% and support for the Maori Party hitting its highest for over five years since January 2016, up 1% point to 3%.
… A small minority of 6.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First unchanged at 2.5%, The Opportunities Party up 0.5% points to 1.5% and support for the New Conservative Party down 0.5% points to 1% in November.
Roy Morgan
Labour are now below the support they had in the 2017 election, and far below their heady heights in 2020. The gloss has worn off and people are becoming sick of the sight of Jacinda Ardern and rest of the grifters of the Labour party.
They have had only their Covid response to claim as a success, and it is now apparent that even that is a failure. There are simply no other successes on which to hang their hat.
When the inevitable surge in cases occurs, which every other country has experienced despite high vaccination rates, confidence will erode even further.
What isn’t yet taken into account is National’s invigorated new leadership. If that produces anything higher than a 5 point bounce then Labour’s iron grip on power will have weakened so much that they risk losing altogether.
The trend is your friend when analysing polls, and the trend for Labour is bad, while the trend for ACT and National is good. Labour is not going to perform any miracles in the next two years and actually deliver anything positive. Any policy ideas are now baked in, and the lack of progress will be apparent for all to see. There is no way they can keep the Covid Circus running for another two years. That ship has sailed.
People will increasingly look for an alternative government as this government expends its political capital on divisive and evil policies like vaccine mandates, ramming through He Puapua, and confiscating water assets.
Fun times ahead. Right now Jacinda Ardern and her feckless band of numpties think they are infallible. They are ignoring the polls at their peril.
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