Norm
On the 27th of September, Jacinda Ardern stood at the post-cabinet podium of truth. She read out her speech, very slowly. Her head was fixed downwards. There was no performance, no smiles, no constant changing of the facial expressions, no waving of the hands. This was not the Ardern we had come to expect during her daily Covid news update. Something was up.
Her news was bad, but more interesting things were happening behind the scenes that were the reasons for her dramatic loss of self-confidence so evident that day.
The previous 2 weeks had seen Auckland drop into level 3 from the more restricting level 4. The movement from one level to the lower level appeared to go against the perceived medical/health advice. Indeed, this is the case. National’s Judith Collins has repeatedly asked for the health advice provided to the cabinet. That advice has not been forthcoming. Labour are hiding it – and for good reason.
The movement from one level to the lower level also appeared to go against the wishes of the very powerful Maori Caucus. Subsequent days revealed that they were wanting a vaccination level of 95% for Maori before a level change. Both the National Party and ACT were applying pressure in the form of their published plans for moving back to ‘living with Covid’ in the community. John Key had come out with his views. The pressure on Ardern’s government to act was coming from every angle. The decision to move down a level became a political decision by Ardern, forced upon a cabinet within which strong factions disagreed.
The drop in the levels was the beginning of the dramatic drop in Labour’s and Ardern’s popularity and serious questions were now being asked about their capability in handling Covid. The drop in levels was immediately followed by an increase in Covid numbers within the Auckland region. However, on this day on the podium, Ardern already knew that the virus had leaked not only south to the Waikato but to the North, a region with a low vaccination rate and a high Maori population.
Ardern’s call to drop levels had backfired. She recognised that she was responsible for the escalating Covid numbers in Auckland and the leaks to other regions but, more importantly, she had lost credibility within the Cabinet. She knew she had made the wrong call and it showed on this day on the podium. Her self confidence had sunk and it showed. Her minders had to do something to protect Ardern and the government.
The next day, Tuesday, Ardern did not attend the press conference. Hipkins fronted the podium. Wednesday, Ardern was rushed out to the regions, to some of the most isolated parts of New Zealand with no press gallery in tow, just the one in-house photographer. Ardern’s team had ‘pivoted’ and said that Ardern was in the regions encouraging the people to get vaccinated.
There were photos of Ardern meeting people with no social distancing and there was the now infamous photo showing Ardern posing over a BBQ with raw sausages and with the BBQ not even turned on. The way she held the tongs not only suggested that she was simply posing for the photo-op, but the grip she held on the tongs was a good metaphor for her hold on her mental health. She was barely hanging on.
A few days out of Wellington should have done wonders for Ardern by taking her out of the spotlight and at the same time reinforcing her ‘with the people’ charm.
Meanwhile, in Wellington, things were progressively getting worse. Numbers were climbing and the public had now heard about the spread of Covid to the regions both north and south of Auckland. The elimination strategy was all but dead and there appeared to be no plan B. John Key, National and ACT had all presented their plans. Labour had nothing. Things appeared to be spiralling out of control. Wellington needed a firm hand, but Ardern was in no condition to be able to provide that.
Her return to Wellington was again going to put the spotlight on her. She had placed herself at the centre of all things Covid in New Zealand during the 2020 lockdowns. But now the lockdowns were making the people unsettled and resentful towards Ardern. Whilst in the last four years she had received nothing but adoration, now she was subject to much hate and derision, and that was taking its toll.
The return to Wellington and the Cabinet meant she had to return to the Podium of Truth. That day she returned, but Hipkins was also there to support her. It was a last-minute constructed safeguard. So last minute that they did not have time to organise an extra lectern. And so it is, to this day, whenever Ardern is in front of the podium she is supported by another senior minister (most of the time Robertson or Hipkins). Ardern’s attendance on the podium now is only one or two times a week, whereas last year it was 5 or 6 days a week.
There has been speculation that Ardern is to visit Europe in November. It would not be a good look to be out of the country whilst continued lockdowns are in Auckland and other regions. The timing is important.
COP26 Glasgow cannot be attended as this would clash with APEC 2021 which is hosted virtually by NZ. Ardern expects some good publicity from this, portraying her as a strong progressive female leader. Behind the scenes, this is far from the truth. The trip to Europe (for an undisclosed reason) I think is primarily to provide Ardern with a break from the constant bad news building in New Zealand and her government’s inability to control the Delta variant.
Whilst in the past Ardern has received favourable press while overseas, New Zealand’s performance over the latest Delta breakout and the continual strategy of lockdowns has been negatively perceived in overseas press. The growing number of stories with a negative view of Ardern is concerning and the accompanying comments in the stories are resulting in Ardern’s overseas brand becoming negative. There is no assurance that Ardern travelling to Europe would be positive for brand Ardern. But Ardern desperately requires a mental break.
Ardern normally takes a good month off during the middle of the year where she will attend international events. This is on top of the 7 to 8 weeks off around Christmas and New Year (recall earlier this year when she took 7 weeks off whilst Covid ravaged the northern hemisphere). It is likely Ardern will not be able to make it to the Christmas holidays without a break from Wellington, so perhaps that is why the trip to Europe was devised. However, as things deteriorate in New Zealand it is making it more difficult for her to be away from Wellington. She is in a very tough spot.
Good leaders perform when the going gets tough. New Zealand has very good examples of this in Richie McCaw, who would excel in the very big games (world cup finals), Sir Edmond Hillary, who could operate at 29,000 feet, and politicians like Steven Joyce who could sort out major political problems despite having to deal with the cumbersome Wellington bureaucracy.
Ardern is not one of these leaders. She was popular but this is changing by the day. Her popularity was the result of an adoring, mainly female fan base who were fed constant stories of her ‘kindness’ and ‘emotional intelligence’ from the equally adoring press.
She won acclaim for her ‘performances’ during the Christchurch terror attack and the first lockdown in 2020 but she cannot be recognised as a leader who can deliver. All the statistics in New Zealand are now much worse than in 2017. This is even so in the key areas she campaigned on – child poverty, housing, transport. Her inability to deliver, the splintering of the different factions within the cabinet, her deteriorating physical and mental health are now catching up on her. Even her wedding plans seem to have gone horribly wrong.
As New Zealand’s problems escalate by the day, Ardern, rather than fronting them, is withdrawing. She is mentally drawn, physically she has lost weight and looks in poor health. Daily makeup sessions are barely covering this up. People are now aware that her mannerisms are those of a person who is sliding to a dark place. Her hand rubbing is an obvious sign of her growing anxiety. Her stance either walking or sitting does not exhibit confidence nor composure. Her decisions are becoming more erratic, ad hoc and off the cuff. When New Zealand needs a sure strategy to deal with Covid and the economic consequences of constant lockdown there does not appear to be a plan. There is a void of senior leadership.
Things in New Zealand will get much worse as the true economic consequences of the Covid lockdowns bite. The Labour Government has not demonstrated any economic ability nor has it presented any economic agenda in either of its two terms. There are two more years until the next election. Two long years that Ardern is unlikely to see through.