The 2020 election was never going to be a courageous triumph for National and Judith Collins. Single-term governments are an extreme rarity in New Zealand. The last one-term Government a Prime Minister has managed to live through was the 1957-1960 Labour administration of Walter Nash. It had won the 1957 election promising a £100 tax-free threshold on the PAYE income tax National planned to implement. Instead, Labour implemented large increases on alcohol and tobacco taxes to combat a balance of payments crisis; a non-issue in today’s global economy due to the market determining currency values.
The media is speculating on the political futures of Leader Judith Collins and Deputy Leader Gerry Brownlee. While we wait for the declaration of the final results on November 6th, there is little else for them to do but speculate. One of the upsides of being the leader of a party thrashed at the polls is the decimation of competitors for your position. Of the 35 National MPs elected, 26 hold electorates and just 9 are on the party list. Many of those 9 needed the loss of a safe National electorate to realise what has been obvious to the rest of us for many years. It’s time to move on.
Which List MPs could or should take the hint and move on with their lives?
#2 Gerry Brownlee has been in Parliament for 24 years, holding the safe seat of Ilam for the entirety of his career. For him to become a minister again, he’d have to remain an MP for at least a 27th year and probably a 30th year until the electorate swings back to National.
#3 Paul Goldsmith entered Parliament in 2011. It would be reasonable for him to expect a few more terms yet and I don’t think some of the errors made in National’s finance policy by Goldsmith are capital crimes. He’s more of a backroom policy wonk than party leader material.
#7 Chris Bishop has only been in Parliament for six years and his large jump in rankings from 40 in 2017 to 7 this time reflects his talent and future potential. Too soon yet for him to even dream of leading the National party, however.
#11 David Bennet. Who? Turfed out of his Hamilton East seat of 15 years, Bennet attained the lightweight portfolios outside Cabinet of Food Safety and Veteran Affairs in 2016, with Racing added in 2017.
#12 Michael Woodhouse. A List MP since 2008, Woodhouse has always been roundly beaten in the Dunedin North/Dunedin Labour stronghold electorate though I wouldn’t consider that to be a reflection on him. Since 2015, he has been Minister of Revenue, Workplace Relations, Immigration, ACC and Deputy Leader of the House. Following a scandal in which it was revealed former National President Michelle Boag had sent Woodhouse private patient information, newly elected Leader Collins stripped Woodhouse of his health spokesperson role. I think Woodhouse’s career has peaked.
#13 Nicola Willis hasn’t yet completed an entire term, entering Parliament on the party list in 2018 following the retirement of former Prime Minister Bill English and Steven Joyce. Willis has been relatively high profile for a new MP and I think her new list ranking reflects that performance having leapt from 48 to 13. Politically wet, though that is actually advantageous in politics. A long career ahead of her but no threat to Collins.
#16 Melissa Lee has some things in common with Michael Woodhouse. Both were elected list MPs in 2008 and both have contested safe Labour electorates each election, hence their List MP status. Unlike Woodhouse, Lee is a moron. Lee first came to national attention contesting the Mt. Albert by-election in 2009, in which she was publicly slammed for telling the audience of a candidate debate that the Waterview SH20 Connection could divert criminals from South Auckland away from the electorate. Lee has held a token role as Private Secretary for Ethnic communities and Chaired the Commerce Select Committee. Should have been a one-term MP.
#18 Nick Smith has been in Parliament for 30 years as the MP for Tasman in 1990-96 then Nelson. In 2018, he became the longest continuously serving MP in Parliament aka the Father of the House. He has been named by the Speaker four times and escorted from the house by the Sergeant-at-Arms. He has lost two defamation cases in which the taxpayer-funded his legal defence and was found to have been in contempt of court in 2004 for his public comments on a family court case. Smith resigned all his Cabinet portfolios in 2012 after using a Minister for ACC letterhead to the Chief Executive of ACC on behalf of a former National party activist. How is Nick Smith still going?
#19 Maureen “fucking useless” Pugh. Special votes saw Pugh miss out on entering Parliament as a List MP in 2014 but return in 2016 following the resignation of Tim Groser. In 2017, special votes again saw Pugh leave Parliament but she returned in 2018 following the resignation of Bill English and Steven Joyce. Election night results have seen Pugh just scrape in on National’s list again but the chances of her surviving the special votes don’t look good.
It would be manifestly unfair for Collins to be taken out as Leader having had just a few months in the role but politics isn’t fair. The slimmed-down National party lacks leadership potential with political experience. There is no doubt future party leaders in the current caucus, such as Christopher Luxon or ummm… but fortunately for Judith their time hasn’t come. Assuming a strong performance once the new Parliament sits, I expect Collins will remain National Leader until the next election.