Having been highly critical of mainstream media and “fake news”, and often announcing “the polls are useless”, I was left doing some serious introspective navel-gazing after the election. Despite number-crunching previous election results and working through as much logic as possible, it turns out that I couldn’t have been more wrong. Even the cursed polls got closer to the eventual outcome than I did.
So gazing deep into my navel, I had to consider: is it not the ultimate hypocrisy to declare others incompetent then find oneself to have been so wrong oneself? To maintain any semblance of credibility and integrity, isn’t self flagellation ending in resignation the only acceptable course of action?
Solutions from a bygone era when integrity, honesty and the truth mattered. So as I’ve sat here reflecting on what might have been, “interviewing my typewriter” (which is of course not a typewriter at all, but “interviewing my computer” could lead to places I really don’t want to go right now), I have unravelled some of my thoughts about election 2020 and the journey forward. It was in October last year that I wrote Jacinda Ardern Walks on Water.
The post and the comments are worthy of a look again now in the aftermath of the election. If she walked on water then, today she could stand at the end of Tory Chanel, raise her arms like Moses and part the waters to create a direct link across Cook Strait (for those of you who are from more recent generations and have no idea what I’m talking about look here).
On a serious note, there are several reasons why many of our predictions turned out to be so wrong and without doubt, Jacinda Ardern is reason number 1. I’ve been derided for suggesting she’s an outstanding communicator. Would any of you who derided my views care to rethink that today?
She said the right things in the right way and reached the right people. The numbers tell us that. Yes, there were some unusual votes cast, purportedly to get the Greens out (worked well didn’t it), but overwhelmingly, she managed to connect with the electorate where others didn’t.
It was always going to be a hard ask and task for Judith Collins. I think she did exceptionally well though the Judith Collins we got wasn’t the Judith Collins we needed. The mellowed-out “crusher” didn’t cut it and I’m not sure that the “crusher” would have done any better. The electorate was simply looking for warmth and kindness and again, the numbers clearly tell us that and Ardern played her role to perfection and created history. She was right: It was a Covid election and the electorate went along with her.
It’s going to be a completely different parliament this term. We have yet to find out what the cabinet will look like and what role the Greens will play. Those who have previous parliamentary experience in Ardern’s team have already proven themselves by and large to be inept. With the exception of Robertson, Hipkins, Parker, Woods and perhaps Little (if he can control his temper), who does she have that she can rely on? Without Peters alongside her to absorb and deflect criticism and questions, what’s question time going to look like? Is Mallard going to get in even deeper in partisanship? What happens with all the new and ambitious Labour MPs that are turning up this term with fresh and exciting agendas? Maybe she can put David Clark in charge of discipline.
This term will measure Jacinda Ardern’s mettle, and the first clear indicator will be what she decides with the Greens followed by who she puts in cabinet. That will determine her ability to manage and control her caucus and that in turn will determine if she continues to walk on water or if Labour will cannibalise itself.
If the Nats are looking at a complete rebuild and a change of leadership, just who can they look to to take the helm? Take a look at who they have in parliament today and ask the question: Where is the next natural leader? There are a few who will be brilliant leaders but not one of them is ready today. The Nats have no succession plan and they do need a cleanout of some of the dead loss “wets” and self centred fools who are still involved with the party overall.
The next three years will also be interesting for ACT. Seymour is a very good MP whose leadership skills have not been tested. He goes from successfully leading a team of one to leading a completely new bunch of parliamentary trainees. Good luck David.
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