We all hope fervently for a Judith Collins-led National government after the election, but the polls still indicate otherwise. It ain’t over until it is over, but Labour, led by Jacinda Ardern, still have a strong lead, and Jacinda’s personal ratings are still through the roof. If the polls are to be believed, Labour has a chance of governing alone… the first time ever under MMP.
By contrast, the Greens are fighting for survival. Most polls have them hovering around the 5% threshold, and they often do worse on election night than the polls suggest. They are aware of their imminent demise. So what do they do? They puff out their chests, and start declaring ‘bottom lines’. In other words, they are doing what minor parties of old have always done. They are becoming the ‘tail wagging the dog’ and making demands that, if they are not met, will mean that the Greens will sit on the cross benches and force Labour to come to them every time they need the numbers.
What part of ‘Labour may be able to govern alone’ is it that they don’t understand? Doesn’t that mean that Labour may well have the numbers, and the Greens will find themselves pariahs in parliament?
A fracture has been riven into the Greens-Labour Party relationship after the Greens demanded a wealth tax be part of any future coalition government agreement.
The Greens’ election policies include a plan to make Kiwis with a net-worth greater than $1 million, pay 1 per cent of their wealth to the Government as a tax.
Those worth more than $2m would pay out 2 per cent of their wealth as tax.
Greens MP Julie Anne Genter today told a small business panel discussion the tax policy was a “bottom line” condition that must be met for her party to join into a second Coalition government with Labour.
James Shaw has learnt something from Winston Peters at last. Winston has been the master of coalition negotiations over the past 25 years. But Winston was always in a strong position in his negotiations. Major parties always needed him to form a government.
It is an interesting strategy for the Greens to do this now. They obviously think Labour will need them, but even if the Greens make it back (which is by no means certain), Labour may not need them to govern. It is widely expected that Labour would extend a hand to the Greens and invite them into government, even if they didn’t need them. The Greens just made the likelihood of that much more remote.
They are trying to shore up their voter base of course. James Shaw is under enormous pressure from his own party over the Green school fiasco, and things have not improved with the recent news that the school’s original application for PGF funding was turned down, resulting in Shaw’s unprincipled stance with other ministers. So they are trying to show how principled they are really. Really, really, really.
Introducing a wealth tax will be political suicide for any government, and if Labour is in a position to say no, then they will. Wealth taxes are punitive and inequitable, and most countries have abandoned them. They will not just target the very rich. They will actually affect most homeowners in Auckland, and an increasing number in Wellington. House prices have risen astronomically because of the poor policies of successive governments; from the RMA, to councils refusing to release land, to uncontrolled immigration and to Kiwibuild. This is not the homeowners’ fault, but they are the ones to be penalised for it, and it is madness. No government in its right mind will go there… but then, this is the Greens we are talking about.
Genter defended the wealth tax, saying it would only affect the wealthiest 6 per cent of Kiwis.
“Any sensible economist knows that we cannot carry on with the status quo. There is a tiny percentage of New Zealanders that would be affected by this tax – they are the top 6 per cent wealthiest New Zealanders,” Genter said.
“It’s not an individual who owns a $2m house and has a $1.5m mortgage.
No, but it is an individual who owns a $1.5 million house, bought 20 years ago for $200,000, who has paid off the mortgage and lived a modest life in it ever since. I could almost forgive the Greens if it were only mansions that sold for over $1 million these days, but we all know that is not true. So do the Greens.
Genter is right about one thing though. We cannot carry on with the status quo. New Zealanders who work hard and pay their taxes should not find themselves constantly under threat from politicians like this, who want to tax people out of existence, even if they don’t have the income to pay the tax.
My greatest wish for the election result is a Judith Collins-led government. If I can’t have that, I would go for the option where the Greens are out of parliament. There would be some real compensations with that outcome, for sure.
But a Judith Collins-led government and no Greens would be an even better outcome… Let’s go for that.
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