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10 Reasons Act Are Doing So Well
ACT are polling at or near 5% in some public polls. In 2011 they got 1.1%, in 2014 0.7% and in 2017 0.5%. So why are they now revitalised and may even end up as the third-largest party in Parliament?
There is no single reason, but I have compiled a list of 10 factors which have all contributed. They are.
1. End of Life Choice Bill
David Seymour gained a lot of respect for the huge achievement of getting the EOLC Bill through Parliament, after two previous bills on the topic had failed. He had to work collaboratively with Labour, Green and NZ First MPs and did so. Even if people don’t agree with euthanasia, the passage of the bill showed him as a substantive politician.
2. Guns
ACT was the only party to oppose the first tranche of the changes to gun laws after the Christchurch mosque massacre. While the vast majority of New Zealanders supported those changes, there are a significant number of gun owners who saw them as an over reach. The second tranche was more vigorously opposed, and the fact that NZ First supported them allowed ACT to capitalise. Finally, they put COLFO spokesperson Nicole McKee at No 3.
3. Unity
ACT has had serious infighting from the beginning. All parties do to some degree but the ACT conflicts were quite brutal and destabilising. You had fiscal conservatives, classical liberals and social conservatives all in there together. Leaders and Deputy Leaders who openly warred. Imported leaders such as Don Brash and John Banks. Their brand got tarnished so much I even wrote an obituary for them in the NZ Herald in 2012.
ACT is now clearly a classical liberal party (freedom is the motto) and both the caucus (joke) and the party is united behind David Seymour.
If they do get a larger caucus after the election, they may find some unity challenges again as one of the consequences of success is you can end up with more diverse views within the party.
4. Free Speech
Cancel culture, political correctness and the war against free speech may keep Donald Trump in power, as ordinary voters are increasingly resentful against a climate where certain topics are deemed beyond debate. In NZ we saw Don Brash banned from speaking at Massey and a call from the usual quarters for hate speech laws to protect people from being offended. ACT has capitalised on this by being the leading voice for free speech.
5. David Seymour
I was sceptical of David Seymour as ACT leader when he took over in 2014. I thought he would be like Jamie Whyte, and be more a think tanker than a party leader. But ACT’s revival is due to Seymour. Firstly he made sure he was an excellent Epsom MP so that he could hold the seat even if National tried to win it. He made the very smart decision in 2016 to turn down being a Minister so he could focus on being ACT Leader and getting the End of Life Choice Bill through. Even Dancing With the Stars worked for him.
6. Less Treaty bashing
Seymour made a deliberate decision to move ACT away from what I call Treaty bashing. Now there are many aspects of how the Government interprets Treaty obligations that are wrong and should be criticised. It isn’t that ACT would be wrong to focus on them, but ACT becomes too easy to caricature as “anti Maori”. Plus there are other parties such as Conservatives and lobby groups such as Hobson’s Choice and Democracy Action in that space.
By steering ACT away from a relentless focus on Treaty issues, ACT has become harder for the left to demonise. A few years ago if you lived in a metro city and said you might vote ACT, you’d be quarantined. Today the ACT brand makes it a very respectable option.
7. List ranking and candidate training
Small parties often have problems with candidates, especially when they suddenly look to win more seats than the past. Ask Peter Dunne about this in 2002. But ACT has been preparing for a while for the possibility of success and run training schools for aspiring candidates and took great care with their list ranking. Moving Brooke van Velden into the No 2 spot worked also.
8. COVID-19
This may be one of the more important factors at the moment. We know from polling that the vast majority of New Zealanders approve of the Government’s strategy and especially the PM’s handling of COVID-19. Let’s say 80% are on board with them.
National has a tough challenge as they can’t say the Government has the wrong strategy so they have to say we support the Government’s strategy but think we could implement it better.
ACT, on the other hand, can quite openly say they think the Government’s strategy is wrong and is killing off the economy and we need a smarter strategy. And sure 80% of New Zealanders won’t be attracted to that argument but some of the 20% will.
9. National weaker then normal
ACT is not just picking up votes from National. They are also picking up votes from NZ First and even Labour. But there is no doubt that National’s problems of the last few months has benefited ACT. ACT were rising in the polls before them, so it is not just about National. Basically as all the other stuff had worked to improve ACT’s brand, then when National got into some trouble, ACT became a natural place to go, rather than say New Conservatives or Sustainable NZ.
10. The NZ First betrayal
Many 2017 NZ First voters felt betrayed by NZ First. First they effectively put the Greens into Government by choosing Labour. Then they voted for stuff such as the oil and gas ban. And finally they voted for Labour’s gun laws. Provincial and rural supporters of NZ First decided they had had enough and have defected to ACT.
So in my view ACT”s current success is due to a combination of all these factors. Their brand has gone from toxic to appealing (to some) and they look likely to go from one MP to at least four. I think they are likely to out poll NZ First and may even out poll the Greens on a good day.
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