The so-called “experts” made a simple, but huge – absolutely huge – mistake and over-stated the mortality of COVID to the power of 10, yes, really, not 2, nor 3, but 10!
From Cambridge University Press, authored by Ronald B. Brown, PhD: “Public health lessons learned from biases in coronavirus mortality overestimation“
“caused by misclassifying an influenza infection fatality rate as a case fatality rate.”
As a result of their huge mistake, we have severely damaged our economy and heaped un-earned praise on an entirely undeserving leader for “keeping us safe”.
“Sampling bias in coronavirus mortality calculations led to a ten-fold increased mortality overestimation in March 11, 2020 U.S. Congressional testimony. This bias most likely followed from information bias due to misclassifying a seasonal influenza infection fatality rate as a case fatality rate, evident in a NEJM editorial. Evidence from the World Health Organization confirmed that the approximate case fatality rate of the coronavirus is generally no higher than that of seasonal influenza. By early May, 2020, mortality levels from COVID-19 were considerably below predicted overestimations, a result which the public attributed to successful mitigating measures to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.”
He’s right. From WHO, March 6, 2020:
Back to Dr Brown’s paper:
“As health authorities responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing lockdowns and other mitigation measures with minimal supporting evidence, scientists warned of “a fiasco in the making”. Caution was also raised against violations of fundamental principles of science and logic, such as the mistaken assumption that correlation implies causation. For example, the public’s belief that mitigation measures were responsible for reducing coronavirus mortality may be a post hoc fallacy if lower mortality was actually due to the overestimation of coronavirus deaths.”
Thank you; Ronald B. Brown, PhD, we should erect a statue in your honour. Can we end this bloody nonsense: now, please?
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