Audrey Young’s article in the Weekend Herald was pretty much spot on. Under the heading “National has credible path to taking power” Audrey pointed out that, with MMP, a small change in party support numbers can result in big consequences. The point needs to be made because there are those on the left who have yet to wake up to the fact. One such person is Laila Harre, whom Q+A dredged up recently. With a facial expression of incredulity that anyone could think otherwise, she announced National didn’t have a bolter’s show of winning in September.
What Laila was illustrating was that those on the left are not very bright. This Government, who Laila seems to think are the greatest thing since sliced bread, are a good example. They look at the latest poll figures and manage to subtract 50 from 38, probably using their calculators, and see the figure 12 on the screen. So, nothing to worry about. Safe as houses. They don’t bother with scenarios.
Here is Audrey’s and it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility. Audrey says it would involve Labour losing five points to National in the next three months, and New Zealand First and the Greens falling short of the 5 per cent threshold without a seat. For example, with Labour on 45 per cent, National on 42, Act on 4 (assuming it holds Epsom), the Greens on 4 and NZF on 3, National and Act would form a Government.
Audrey says it is not far fetched. Indeed it is not. She says there are other combinations that will lead to a similar outcome. Indeed there are which makes rubbish of Laila’s “not a bolter’s show” comment. Audrey thinks the electorate could be tiring of Winston’s belligerence and notes that the Greens tend to garner fewer votes on Election Day than the polls suggest. According to David Farrar, in the last two elections they have polled 1.5% less than the Colmar figure, which in the latest poll was 6%.
Then there is the deluded Jane Bowron writing for Stuff, who seems to rate Jacinda so highly you could be forgiven for thinking she was describing some sort of transgender second coming. Jacinda is part of our fabric, a superstar political leader, her daily debriefs with Ashley were admired throughout the land, this was hero worship and we were all in a swoon. Does anyone check this drivel? Jane returned to reality (sort of) at the conclusion of her article by comparing Jacinda to Winston Churchill, who lost the post-war election, musing that the PM could suffer the same fate. Jane doesn’t seem to mind who she insults.
Looking at the Act line-up of candidates at the weekend and their gradual rise in the polls, four or five per cent is not out of the question. I predict David Seymour will hold Epsom with an increased majority. At long last, it appears National has a viable partner.
This election is not a foregone conclusion, not by a long shot.