As the news broke about Simon Bridges‘ “bold” move to attempt to cancel out Winston Peters the National caucus was all cock-a-hoop. Despite there being no discussion or even a vote in caucus, the leadership team of National made their declaration of war.
Since then, however, they have come down off of their faux-high and reality seems to be kicking in. They, especially the list MPs, have realised that the maths doesn’t work. Plenty of them know what UMR’s latest polling is showing (Labour 41, Nat 39, Green 7, NZ First 7, Act 2) and they have better arithmetic skills than their leader. They have also realised that Simon Bridges is not John Key, something that David Cormack notes in his latest column:
John Key. That’s what Simon is aiming for. Key famously ruled out working with Winston Peters after the 2008 election, a move that many think contributed to NZ First not making it back into parliament that year.
Except when Key made his move, he made it from a position of near total dominance. From the time he became leader of National until the 2008 General Election there had been just two opinion polls showing Labour ahead of National. This was out of 116 polls. At one point National was leading Labour by 27 points.
Since Bridges was elected leader of National, National has lead Labour in 10 out of 17 polls. Crucially, there has not been a single poll since the 2017 election where National has had more than Labour plus Greens combined.
Sobering reading for a list MP. Sobering too for those supporters who think Bridges has done the right thing. The facts have always been there for people to see, so I assuming that the old proverb that there are none so blind than those who will not see still holds true.
From a strategic perspective, the timing makes no sense either. Bridges should have ruled Winston out as soon as he became leader, that would have been the ultimate display of courage and a clear sign of what sort of government he’d like to lead. Or done it 8 weeks out from an election.
Doing it now means National will probably get a small bump in the immediate future which will whittle away as the country is reminded who Simon Bridges is. It should always be remembered that when Simon did his tour of New Zealand to introduce himself to the country, it didn’t just lead to the horrible Jami-Lee Ross affair, but also to fewer people liking Bridges than before they knew him.
Those numbers haven’t improved and are unlikely to. Simon Bridges comes across as insincere, inauthentic and cheesy.
This stunt is also probably the most attention Bridges will get between now and the election campaign proper. By making this move, he’s rendered himself all but irrelevant. Irrelevancy is the most damaging thing that can happen to a political leader. Remember Goff, and Shearer, and Cunliffe, and Little? All were considered nowhere men, Russel Norman was talked of as “leader of the opposition” during this period. I guess this makes the leader of the opposition David Seymour?
Well, David Seymour has actually worked very hard to achieve that.
For Simon to become Prime Minister, National and ACT need to poll above Labour, the Greens and NZ First combined. Or one or both of those parties needs to drop below five percent. Bridges may have been emboldened by the most recent One News Poll in November last year that had exactly this scenario playing out. Labour’s latest internal polling actually has them alone polling above National, and both NZ First and the Greens above five percent, making Simon’s task herculean.
Those pesky facts again. The one thing Simon Bridges can’t dodge are facts. The facts don’t help him.
Another scenario is that a Labour and Greens coalition looks most likely, forcing some National voters to vote for NZ First to act as a handbrake on what Labour and the Greens might do. This move may, in fact, increase NZ First’s vote.
You may be sure that Winston Peters will be making that case, long and loud.
Barry Soper also thinks that Bridges has signed the longest resignation letter in New Zealand history:
Simon Bridges has taken the biggest punt of his career – and his attempt to kneecap New Zealand First by refusing to work with them could easily turn him into a political cripple.
It either shows a lack of understanding of MMP, or he’s a high-risk betting man.
Bridges insists it was his call to refuse to work with Winston Peters and claims his party is, to a person, happy and relieved by his decision not to work with NZ First “in any way, shape or form”.
The National leader has jumped the gun, declaring his hand way too soon.
His decision is quite different to the same decision made by John Key before the 2008 election. Key had options; namely the Maori Party, United Future and Act.
That move saw NZ First out of Parliament, mainly because of a donations saga it had become embroiled in, and even though Key rejected them again in 2014, they were back with a vengeance with eight MPs.
Currently, Bridges has just one option, with just one MP, thanks to an ongoing soft deal with Act in the Epsom seat.
And that’s what MMP is all about, whether we like it or not: It’s cutting deals.
It’s as though Bridges has rejected MMP, believing National will be first past the post with 51 percent of the vote at the coming election, something no party has achieved since the electoral system came into being in 1996.
Or indeed anywhere in the world in democracies that use MMP.
National failed before the last election to wipe New Zealand First from the political map, even though Bill English pleaded with voters to cut out the middle man.
And that’s what this is all about with Bridges. He’s telling voters if they want a National Government they’ll have to vote for it.
He insists Peters can’t be trusted but, when asked why, came up with a curious argument which cuts to the heart of what MMP’s all about, again whether we like it or not, saying the public is sick of the charade of Peters holding the country to ransom for weeks while he makes up his mind on who to anoint as Prime Minister.
Bridges may have removed the choice from Peters, but he’s just increased the odds against him getting the job he so desperately wants.
NZ Herald
Worse than that, Simon Bridges has effectively said that there is a clear case that a vote for National is a wasted vote. That if you want to stop a Labour/Green government then the only option is to vote NZ First.
No wonder National caucus members are a bit shell-shocked, they are starting to realise just how bad their predicament is and the only people they will be able to blame when they are in opposition again are Simple Simon and his handbag Paula Bennett. Bridges and Bennett have made themselves the scapegoat for angry members. They can hardly continue to blame Winston Peters when they took that option off the table.