Opinion
Well, I’ll give this to Anthony Albanese: he’s got more guts than I’d have credited him for. As I speculated recently, it would be telling to see if the PM personally campaigned for the critical Dunkley by-election this week. After all, it’s fast getting to the stage that Jacinda Ardern found herself in, the last months of her prime ministership: every time the PM is seen in public, it only generates a flurry of negative commentary.
But, as it happens, Albanese was in Dunkley this week — if only to lay the groundwork for a devastating blow for Labor.
Defeat in Dunkley would be a disaster for Albanese. It would return his government to a majority of just one – and, worse, revive images of disastrous by-election losses in the past that have foretold a federal election loss or a nadir for the government.
In 1975, the Whitlam government lost the Tasmanian seat of Bass and months later was wiped out nationally. In 1995, the Keating government lost the seat of Canberra and the election the following year. John Howard faced a wipe-out after the Ryan by-election in 2001 and avoided it only with a massive budget effort.
Dunkley is a safe Labor seat. Or it was. But what would once have been a safe margin of 6.3% no longer is as safe as it was. More ominously, it’s far from the only seat Labor holds by a similar margin or less.
As he furiously campaigns for a win in the Melbourne by-election on Saturday, the Prime Minister has repeatedly said “the average swing against the government, in a government-held seat, is 7 per cent”.
Albanese has declared it’s “science and maths” and “just a fact”, as his ministers have repeated the magic number of a 7 per cent swing against sitting governments. The figure of 7 per cent conveniently fits the political narrative in Dunkley, where a 6.3 per cent swing against Labor would be a loss.
Except that, far from “science and maths”, it’s a bogus number Albanese has pulled out of his arse. In fact, since the 1940s, the average swing in government-held seats in a by-election has been less than 6%. In by-elections brought on by the death of the sitting member (as in Dunkley), the average swing is just 2.6%. And in Australia’s Wokest State, the average swing against a Labor government in a by-election is just 0.7%.
So, Albo’s telling just another whopper. Why would he be so keen to anticipate a by-election loss?
By-elections matter. Even if, as seems likely, Albanese hangs on after a swing in Dunkley of 3 to 5 per cent, a score of seats will be under threat if the swing is repeated nationally at the election.
The Australian
In another sign that Albanese is expecting the worst on Saturday, he’s backed away from his brain-fart announcement of an early March Budget, followed by an early election next May.
Albanese as prime minister had effectively announced the election date and given away his leadership prerogative of keeping the election date as a strategic advantage over the Opposition.
By nominating a March Budget — March 11 or 18 — the electoral laws and public holidays dictate there can’t be a March or early April election because there have to be 33 days from the announcement of the election to polling day and Easter and Anzac Day cover the end of April.
Thus, May 3, 10 and 17 are the only possible dates for the 2025 election.
But the last PM to give away the election date so early paid a high price for it.
The last prime minister to announce an election date so far in advance was Julia Gillard in 2013 as parliament resumed in February and she said the election would be in September blindsiding her MPs and party strategists.
This decision, considered to be politically naive and a miscalculation, was a vital contribution to the reasons for Gillard being removed in a party putsch by Kevin Rudd.
The Australian
Albanese’s announcement similarly came out of the blue, almost as if he was panicking and clutching at straws — until the party’s faceless men whispered in his ear and told him to pull his head in.