OPINION
The Curia Poll released last week was very revealing in terms of what its content told us about where the country is headed. National went up 2.6 points to 39.6% while ACT doubled that increase going up 5.6 points to 13.7%. The interesting point to note here is that ACT’s increase did not come at the expense of National. NZ First shed a point to 5% so their propensity to rise going into an election and fall afterwards is continuing. The only point I would make about that is, based on what we have seen so far, NZ First is showing it wants to make a useful contribution to the government and is needed also, with ACT, to chivvy National along.
On the left Labour is still hovering around 27% but the Greens, not surprisingly, have shed a substantial 4.8 points to 9%. What is interesting to note is Labour gained none of those lost Green votes and neither did the Maori Party, down 1.1 to 2.3%. If I were on the left of politics I would be very worried by this poll. It is a total disaster for the potential coalition of chaos, which is what it would be, and this poll shows the voters know it. This poll is so strong for the right it shows that National and ACT could govern alone. In theory that looks good, but in practice we need Winston and Shane.
What story is this poll telling us? There is, in fact, more than one. The first story is revealed in ACT’s stunning result. Should we have expected their rise? Yes, but perhaps not by as much. The story within the story is that it was not at the expense of National. The usual trend is for a party on one side to rise at the expense of another on the same side. That both parties increased by a combined total of 8.2% should have alarm bells ringing loudly on the left.
What can we attribute ACT’s success in this poll to? You don’t need me to tell you. It is no doubt the upcoming Bill in relation to the examination of the Treaty of Waitangi. David will know from this poll he now has the upper hand over his coalition partners, particularly National. I, for one, want a referendum on this matter with the result to become law and therefore binding on this government and any future one. In my view, that is the only way we are going to stop the nonsense coming from the left which is enabling the minority to attempt to rule the majority.
The minority is nothing more than a pocket full of elite Maori activists who are acting solely in their self-interest. They are not to be believed when they talk about achieving things in the interests of their people. Winston and Shane know it and so do we. The poll tells the story. I would respectfully advise Christopher Luxon to take a long hard look at this poll because it spells out exactly where public sentiment lies on this matter. It is quite at variance with his latest utterances. National needs to think carefully about its strategy concerning the forthcoming Bill.
The other story for the right is that the public appears not to mind the reintroduction of oil and gas exploration and the startup of mining. The public obviously has no more concern for the ‘blind frog’ than Shane Jones does. Here again National needs to look at its strategy because the mood of governments, particularly in Europe, is changing when it comes to net-zero targets. They realise they can’t be met and they also realise oil and gas will be needed for decades to come. Production of electric vehicles is slowing rapidly. I doubt we’ll need ten thousand charging stations around the country.
It is early days but this poll shows increasing public confidence in the way this government is going about its business. They like what they see and are happy with the initial steps to get the ship off the rocks Labour caused it to founder on. As Stephen Joyce noted in the Weekend Herald, recent data released shows just what a botched job Labour, Robertson in particular, made of economic management. Reckless spending for little or no results, and he points out Nicola Willis has mountains to climb to get the country back to where it needs to be.
I am happy. My current reservation would be, no doubt along with many other readers here, the lingering perception by National that, certainly on the matters of race, it is not yet prepared to bite the bullet. Luxon says a referendum would be divisive. The reality is divisiveness is here, it’s alive and well, and the only way to end it is via a referendum where the people decide, a la ‘The Voice’ in Australia. It’s called democracy.
Claire Trevett doesn’t agree. Writing in the Weekend Herald she says Seymour committed a foul pushing Luxon on this issue and Luxon has punched back saying he definitely won’t support the Bill beyond its first reading even if there is overwhelming public support. According to Claire, Seymour gave Luxon the opportunity to do what he considered right and not what he considered popular. If you take that to its logical conclusion then anyone who is thinking of submitting on the Bill is wasting their time. That is outrageous!
This is where politicians make a basic mistake, as Anthony Albanese found out. They are there to serve those who put them there, not to dictate. What Luxon thinks he should do in terms of ‘right’ and ‘popular’ is personal to him. This is not about him, it’s about the people who put him there to represent them. With his current stance, he is misrepresenting them. The voters don’t take kindly to having their wishes denied. He should be wary of the next set of polls.
The public has put the Maori politicians on the left on notice that their ideas and rhetoric are contrary to the majority opinion in the country. The message is that rabble-rousers are not wanted. The reading of results from this poll has the government effectively entering the Waikato Expressway while the Opposition, in the eyes of the public, is simply peddling rubbish on one of their beloved cycleways. As in the election result, the advice from voters is ‘on yer bikes’. According to this poll, the bikes’ tyres are either flat or desperately need pumping up.
On this poll, in round figures, the Coalition parties have 53% and the Opposition parties have 38%. No matter how you read it, that is a horrific result for the left. The ball is now very much with Willie Jackson and his elite mates driving Labour (possibly into oblivion), the Greens (who are seemingly ignorant of reverse climate change policy happening) and the Maori Party (who are putting self-interest before their people). They might pick the ball up and run with it but unless they change their game plan the winning of the next election is looking akin to mission impossible.