The BFD | IDF Continues Its Ground Offensive

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Gaza Strip: Over the weekend, the fighting continued to focus on Shajaiya and Jabalya in the north as well as Khan Yunis in the south.

According to the IDF, they are conducting raids on “terrorist strongholds, eliminating terrorists, and locating and destroying terrorist infrastructure. In addition, IDF naval troops are operating off the coast of the Gaza Strip, supporting IDF ground troops and striking terror targets from the sea.”
The IDF announced last night that the new commander of the Shajaiya battalion was killed in an air strike, a few days after his predecessor was killed.
On Sunday night, IDF Spokesperson Hagari declared that the IDF had completed its takeover of Palestine Square in the heart of Gaza City. He said: “Palestine Square is where Yahya Sinwar’s office is located, it is where government offices are located, it is where senior Hamas leaders’ assets are located and that’s where a terrorist network of tunnels is located. These are strategic tunnels in the sense that they run from northern Gaza City to Shifa Hospital.”
Since the end of the operational pause, the Israeli Air Force has struck over 3,500 targets in the Gaza Strip and overall over 22,000 Hamas targets.
Despite IDF advances, Hamas are still firing rockets into southern Israel.

Lebanon border: Over the weekend, fighting has continued in a similar pattern, with Hezbollah firing rockets, anti-tank missiles and launching UAVs into northern Israel.

Yesterday IDF Chief of Staff visited the northern border and told troops, “for the return to all the communities, both in the south and in the north – first, we need to return to a different situation, and return to both safety and a sense of security. There is a military way to do this, the beginning of which is also what you are doing here, to damage, to deter, to kill Hezbollah operatives, to demonstrate our superiority.”
On Sunday night, Hezbollah launched several rockets. According to the IDF, “one of the rockets was launched from 20 metres away from a United Nations compound.”
“In doing so, the terrorist organisation endangers the lives of UNIFIL soldiers and continues to systematically violate UNSC Resolution 1701. The UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander was notified of the incident.”
This morning eight rockets were launched into northern Israel, six were intercepted, two landed in open areas
The IDF continues to return fire to the source, and also target Hezbollah compounds from where their fighters emerge.
Hezbollah has publicly confirmed 100 of its fighters killed since October 7^th, though the IDF believes the number could be higher.
Overall, six IDF soldiers and four Israeli civilians have been killed in the north.

Context: In Gaza, the IDF is making significant progress in its ground offensive but appears still far from achieving its two main objectives of removing Hamas from power and returning the remaining 137 hostages.

The latest estimate is that 7,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, including half of Hamas’s battalion and company commanders.
As a result of the intense fighting, the IDF announced the deaths of another four soldiers this morning, taking the total since the beginning of the land incursion to 101.
On Friday, the debate at the UN Security Council underlined once more how reliant Israel is on the US when they vetoed a motion demanding a ceasefire. The UK abstained, whilst all 13 other counties supported the motion.
Prime Minister Netanyahu called on other countries to recognise that it is a contradiction in terms to support the destruction of Hamas while also calling for a ceasefire. He said Israel would continue its just war to eliminate Hamas and to achieve all the other war objectives.
Placing Israeli flags and other symbols inside Gaza serves a short term purpose for confirming the IDF are in control and is part of their psychological warfare against Hamas, but should not be construed as an Israeli statement to remain there in the long term.
There is also significant debate in Israel over the wisdom of releasing the images of Palestinian prisoners in their underwear.
Security officials have explained the operational necessity for them to remove their clothes to ensure none of them are wearing an explosive suicide vest, but that does not mean they need to be photographed at that moment, or that once checked they cannot put their clothes back on.
The arrested men were captured in northern Gaza, and once arrested they were questioned. So far around 40 per cent were found to be terrorists or members of Hamas. The remaining 60 per cent were released into the safe zones in southern Gaza.
Some of the arrested Hamas men are thought to hold valuable information.
The fighters who have surrendered attests to the erosion of Hamas’s fighting capabilities, however, there is still thought to be a vast network of fighters underground.
Another significant issue on the political agenda is whether to allow Palestinians from the West Bank with work permits to re-enter into Israel. It is understood that the prime minister and the security establishment support a limited return, primarily over concerns that exacerbating economic hardship that could lead to increased violence. However, there was almost no support for this in the socio-economic cabinet.
The issue will soon be discussed in the security cabinet.

Looking ahead: The IDF could complete the takeover of the Shajaiya and Jabalya strongholds in the next few days, but the operation in Khan Yunis could still last several weeks.

The timing will be determined both by operational considerations and the extent of the US providing diplomatic support.
Even if the operation in Khan Yunis is completed, it is currently unclear if the IDF will be able to extend the ground operation to other areas in central Gaza or Rafah in the south.
IDF Spokesperson Hagari maintains that the IDF will target all members of Hamas’s leadership. On Sunday night he said, “Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa—that trio—we’ve got to reach them. That’s our job. And we intend to reach them. However long it takes, we will reach them. Them, and the other Hamas leaders.”

BICOM Background Briefing: Operation Swords of Iron

BICOM published a comprehensive background briefing on Operation Swords of Iron, including background on Hamas, Israeli policy on Gaza, and Israel’s obligations under international law. Read the full briefing here.

NEW PODCAST

Episode 223 | The Military and Diplomatic Timetables

In this episode, Richard Pater speaks to Shalom Lipner. Two months into the war, they discuss the military campaigns in the south and the north as well as the diplomatic front and Israel–US relations. They also speculate on the day after for the Palestinians and inside Israel. Shalom Lipner is a nonresident senior fellow for Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, and a former veteran of the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, serving seven consecutive Israeli prime ministers over 25 years.

Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Google Podcasts

ARTICLE

Comparing the Hamas Pogrom of 7 October to the Holocaust is a misuse of Holocaust Remembrance say Omer Bartov, Raz Segal, Christopher Browning et al. This is why they are wrong.

Read here

Top stories from the UK and Israeli media

The Times,The Daily Mail,ReutersandThe Telegraph report that Hamas and its allies staged fierce resistance to Israel’s advances in Gaza on Sunday night and threatened that all remaining hostages would be killed if negotiations did not resume for their future. Battles continued in two areas of northern Gaza more than six weeks after the tanks first rolled in. Residents said the Israel Defence Forces had reached the centre of Khan Yunis, the main Hamas stronghold in the south, but Israeli officials are making clear that they believe defeating the militant group will take longer than many hope, including the Biden administration.

The Telegraph reports that a Kremlin “doppelganger” campaign using mocked-up versions of real news sites to issue false reports is stoking global tensions over the war in Gaza, experts have said. Articles which mimic the layout of established news sites to spread anti-Western disinformation.

The Telegraph also reports that Lord Cameron has threatened to shut down SNP ministers’ ‘mini-embassies’ abroad after Humza Yousaf held face-to-face talks about the Gaza crisis with President Erdogan of Turkey.

The Independent,The Telegraph,Sky NewsandThe Guardian report that two girls aged 13 and 14 have been arrested after a Jewish woman was violently robbed in Stamford Hill, north London, in what police are saying is a possible hate crime. They have been taken into custody following an incident that saw attackers ‘joke about the victim being dead’.

Sky Newsreports on Hamas’ extensive tunnel network: “The ‘Gaza metro’ is bigger in scale than the London Underground network. Many of the tunnels were originally dug in the early 1980s to bypass the border between Egypt and Rafah, enabling the illegal smuggling of trade and weapons. However, they have since been expanded into two further categories: defensive and offensive.”

Sky Newsalso releases a short video interview with Rami Shmuel, one of the organisers of the festival in Israel, which was attacked by Hamas on 7 October. Israeli police say at least 360 people were murdered -alongside mass sexual violence. Sky News also publishes an article on this interview.

The Financial Times reports that Israel’s national security adviser has warned that Israel “can no longer accept” the presence of Hezbollah forces on its northern border and said it will have to “act” if they continue to pose a threat. Tensions between Israel and the powerful Iran-backed Lebanese militant group have been running high since the war between Israel and Hamas erupted two months ago, with repeated bouts of cross-border fire.

The Financial Times also reports that the Palestinian Authority is working with US officials on a plan to run Gaza once the war between Israel and Hamas is over, the Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh has said. Shtayyeh said he did not think Israel could destroy Hamas and that his preferred solution was for Hamas to become a junior partner in the umbrella Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and help build an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. “If [Hamas] are ready to come to an agreement and accept the political platform of the PLO, then there will be room for talk. Palestinians should not be divided,” Shtayyeh said in an interview with Bloomberg.

The Financial Times also publishes a long read: “It was a riveting image: the presidents of three of the world’s most elite universities — Harvard, the University of Pennsylvania and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology — seated together at a witness table. All were women; one black and one Jewish. They were the star witnesses at a congressional hearing on campus antisemitism. Within days, one of them would be forced from office and the others would be clinging to their jobs.”

The Guardian reports that the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza has come under intensified scrutiny after it revealed it had bypassed Congress to supply tank shells and was reported not to be carrying out continual assessments of whether Israel was committing possible war crimes.

The Daily Mail reports that Labour stepped up its criticism of Israel yesterday over its response to the Hamas terror attack of October 7. Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy said that the damage done over the past two months in Gaza was ‘intolerable’ and attacked two far-right Israeli cabinet ministers for ‘totally unacceptable’ support of illegal settlements in the West Bank.

The Daily Mail also reports that police are searching for pro-Palestine demonstrators who were caught on camera carrying offensive placards during a rally in central London yesterday. Tens of thousands of protesters flooded the capital for the ninth weekend in a row yesterday, marching from the Bank of England to Parliament Square, as they demanded a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. Thirteen people have already been arrested with the majority having been detained in connection to offensive placards.

The Daily Mail also reports that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented on the horrifying nature of Hamas’ sexual violence against innocent Israelis on October 7. During a Sunday interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, Blinken discussed the reasons some global organisations, countries, and leaders took an inordinate amount of time to acknowledge and condemn the atrocious sexual violence of the terrorist group.The Economist publishes a piece saying: “It has been nine weeks since Israel began bombarding the Gaza Strip and six since it sent in ground forces. Some 18,000 Gazans, mostly civilians, have died. But Israel has so far failed to achieve its main objective of destroying the military capabilities of Hamas, the Islamist movement that rules Gaza and, in a terrorist attack on October 7th, murdered 1,200 Israelis and took 240 people hostage. It increasingly looks as though the IDF have just weeks to finish the job before America, Israel’s vital ally, withdraws support for the offensive. Success looks unlikely.”

The Economist also publishes an article on the need for a peace process and what it may look like: “If you want to understand how desperately Israelis and Palestinians need peace, consider what would become of them in a state of perpetual war. Against a vastly superior Israeli army, the Palestinians’ most powerful weapon would remain the death and suffering of their own people. Israel’s fate would be woeful, too, if it wants to be a flourishing, modern democracy. If Israel permanently relies on its army to subjugate the Palestinians, it would become an apartheid-enforcing pariah. Israelis carrying out daily acts of oppression punctuated by rounds of killing would themselves be corrupted. For two peoples locked in a violent embrace, peace is the only deliverance.”

Yediot Ahronot’s Nahum Barnea says that “It is problematic having the war prosecuted by the same people who are responsible for the failures. I hope with all my heart that they are all acting clear-mindedly.” Barnea focusses particularly on National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi and IDF Intelligence Director Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva. Barnea is also critical of some of the optics of Israeli conduct in the war, especially images of “hundreds of Gazan men being led through the destroyed streets of Sajaiya in their underwear” and “a bulldozed Palestine Square with a large Hanukkah Menorah and an Israeli flag at its centre.” Of the latter, he says that some Israelis have “forgotten that the IDF hasn’t gone into Gaza with the goal of occupying it. If the Israeli flag is still flying over Palestine Square in another few months’ time that will be a sign that we’re stuck with a very big problem.”

Of the images of captured men in their underwear, Kan Radio quotes Hanegbi saying that such conduct should stop. “From an operational aspect,” he said, “it is crucial [to ensure] that they are not wearing bomb belts or other things. And I hope that there will be many more pictures of people surrendering without fighting and handing over their weapons. They will be checked but then will get dressed and should not be taken [prisoner] in the manner seen in the pictures.”

Israel Hayom’s Yoav Limor foresees a scenario whereby “troops will withdraw before Hamas has been defeated and before all the hostages have been freed—which are the operation’s two central objectives. On the other hand, prolonging the operation without Washington’s consent would mean a major crisis in relations with the Biden administration, which has given Israel complete and full diplomatic-military-economic support. Doing so,” Limor says, “would have far-reaching repercussions on Israel’s relations with Europe and the moderate Sunni states, and might end up producing motions to impose sanctions against Israel in international theatres.” Limor also sees tension between Israel and the US on the question of Hezbollah. “It is clear to Israel,” he says, “that there can be no return to normal in northern Israel and that the residents will not be able to return to their homes unless Hizbullah is first repelled from the border fence. The preferred way to achieve that is by means of an agreement, but the chances of that are very slim despite the efforts being made by the American envoy, Amos Hochstein. Israel is cooperating with this effort, among other reasons, in order to gain international legitimacy that will enable it to use force if that becomes necessary, but Jerusalem also remembers Biden’s explicit warning that he succinctly put in one word—don’t—in which he called on both sides to refrain from war.”

Haaretz features Prime Minister Netanyahu speaking with Russian President Putin on Sunday and expressing his anger at “anti-Israel positions” taken by Moscow’s envoys at the UN. Netanyahu also voiced “robust disapproval” of Russia’s “dangerous” cooperation with Iran. “Over the past weeks,” writes the paper, “Putin has been devoting a substantial amount of attention to the Middle East. Last week, he visited the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the first visit that exceeds the Russian border since the international warrant against him issued by The Hague’s Criminal Court. He then hosted the crown prince of Oman and the Iranian Prime Minister Ibrahim Raisi,” while “at the end of October, a Hamas delegation led by the deputy head of the terror organization’s political bureau, Moussa Abu Marzouk, was hosted in Moscow. Russia defended its decision to host the delegation, saying it was necessary to maintain contacts with all sides in the Israel-Palestinian conflict.”

Ynet includes the Mossad confirming that it cooperated with Cypriot authorities in thwarting an Iranian terrorist cell that planned to carry out attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets in Cyprus in recent days. “Thanks to the anti-terrorist activity and the arrest of the cell by the security services in Cyprus,” it said, “a lot of information was received that led to the exposure of the threats, the methods of operation, the targets of the attack and the Iranian plan to cause the killing of innocents in Cyprus and in other arenas.” Two Iranians are thought to have been apprehended, with Iran having a history of using Turkish northern Cyprus to enable assets to move into the southern part of the island to attempt attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets.

In Yediot Ahronot, Itamar Eichner and Gad Lior report the US sending a multinational maritime force to the region to help combat the threat from the Yemeni Houthis, who have launched a series of attacks against both Israel and US targets since October 7^th. The US move came after the Houthis announced their intention to stop any ship en route to Israel via the Red Sea, tantamount to declaring a maritime blockade on Israel.

Ynet reports Israel’s Foreign Minister Eli Cohen meeting with Argentina’s controversial new President Javier Milei ahead of his inauguration yesterday. Milei also met with dual national Israeli-Argentinians with relatives taken hostage by Hamas, including members of the Bibas family. He promised Argentina’s “absolute solidarity with the people of Israel following the acts of terror perpetrated by the Hamas terrorist organisation. We strongly condemn them. I support Israel’s full right to defend itself against those terrorist attacks. In addition, we are examining the possibility of declaring Hamas a terrorist organisation in Argentina.”

IDF Continues Its Ground Offensive

Top stories from the UK and Israeli media

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