OPINION

The first post-election Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll was released yesterday. Unsurprisingly it has cemented the popularity of the new Government in waiting. Predictably, Chris Hipkins’s popularity has nose-dived like a lead balloon.

Headline Results for November’s Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:

  • National: 37.0% support (down 1.1), down 2 seats to 46 seats.
  • Labour: 28.3% support (up 1.4), gains 1 seat to 35.
  • ACT: 8.1% support (down 0.5), down 1 seat to 10.
  • Green: 13.8% support (up 2.2), up 2 seats to 17.
  • NZ First: 6.0% support (down 0.1), steady at 8 seats.
  • Maori: 3.4% support (up 0.3), steady at 6 seats.
  • Other: 3.7% support (down 1.8).
  • Centre-Right bloc: 64 seats (down 3).
  • Centre-Left bloc: 58 seats (up 3).

Preferred Prime Minister Poll:

  • Christopher Luxon: 33% (+4 points).
  • Chris Hipkins: 18% (-9 points).
  • Winston Peters: 5.0% (+0.7 points).
  • David Seymour: 4% (unchanged).
  • Jacinda Ardern: 5.6%.
  • Chloë Swarbrick: 6.3% (+0.2 points).
  • Nicola Willis: 1.3% (-1.2 points).
  • James Shaw: 1.4% (+0.2 points).
  • Matt King: 0.4% (-0.3 points).
  • Marama Davidson: 0.4% (-0.8 points).
  • Chris Bishop: 0.6% (+0.5 points).

Country Direction:

  • Up 10 points to -20%.
  • 29% think the country is heading in the right direction.
  • 49% say the wrong direction.

Poll Details:

  • Conducted from Nov 1 to Nov 6, 2023.
  • 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters participated.
  • Weighted results with a maximum sampling error of +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level.

It’s a strange old thing to have a poll immediately after the election, but I guess it will provide a benchmark for the rest of the term.

By the time of the next poll, we will know exactly what the Government and the Executive look like. Then we can start gauging individual performances.

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...