OPINION
Except it isn’t, is it? Not according to the polls. The Roy Morgan poll had National at a measly, under the circumstances, 31. This is a decrease on the previous month while ACT, its coalition partner is up plus 4 to 18. This poll was the most accurate regarding the 2020 election result. National, like Mike Hosking, can choose not to believe it. I do believe it and alarm bells should be going off in the National camp, particularly at HQ.
This is National’s election to lose, for heaven’s sake. With the most useless opponents in history, it should be a walk in the park. Instead, it’s looking like a climb of Everest proportions. Why? What is going wrong? A lot. Their strategy to start with. They are losing their support base because they are out of touch. Not in the way the union hierarchical thickos would have you believe, quite the opposite. They are out of touch with their base because it would appear that the policies those voters want, National are too scared to implement.
The result is National is going down and ACT is going up. National is failing to convince the right that they will do even half of what they say they will. That is not a view I hold but many justifiably do. The Labour Lite tag is still being hung around National’s neck. For evidence, one only needs to read the General Debate or Backchat on The BFD. The blame does not rest solely with Luxon but the wider party. I think, if they got their policies right, Luxon has every chance of being a good Prime Minister.
People are dying for National to take a harder line on issues like the Treaty, co-governance (what another version is supposed to mean), climate change and social issues like transgenderism on which they look particularly woke. These are issues on which ACT and NZ First are leaving voters in no doubt about where they stand. The smaller parties are gaining votes as a result. I heard Nicola Willis being interviewed on the subject of transgenders in women’s changing rooms, and she wouldn’t pass judgment one way or the other.
It appears this reluctance to take a stand through fear is because National are under the misapprehension there is still some great ‘middle ground’ out there that they need to win. There isn’t. It’s gone and I’ll tell you why. The current lot, particularly the thankfully departed, vindictive and lying Jacinda Ardern, has so polarised and divided this country that the vast majority have now taken up a left or right position.
What the polls are telling us, not surprisingly, is that the majority have opted for the right. They are there because they want strong leadership that will have the nonsense and incompetence of the last six years well and truly gone.
They don’t want a watered-down version of it, they want a wholesale departure from it.
They want a government game changer. One only has to compare the policies of National and ACT to see which party is more in line with that thinking. It is ACT. In some cases, NZ First is beating National to the punch.
Whether you like National or not there is a salient point to be taken into account. To have a strong right-of-centre government we need National to be strong. That responsibility is on National, not the voter. National have to convince the electorate they can give them what they want. In terms of the right of centre voters, they are failing them. If they spoke out as strongly on core issues of importance to the right as Chris Bishop did on the union attack ads, confidence might start to be restored.
Their announcement of the foreign buyers’ policy should have been left until after the opening of the books. There are already questions as regards the successful funding of the policy which is somewhat central to their overall finance plans. If the books are really bad, and there is every reason to believe they are (having had a university student debater in charge for six years), the foreign buyers issue could be regurgitated. I hope the rest of their fiscal policy is not released prior to September 12. They need to see the books first.
The point of this article is not to say National are going to lose the election. They aren’t. Fortunately for them, the morons on the other side have determined that. My intention has been to highlight the dissatisfaction with the reluctance of the party to demonstrate a harder line on issues important to right-wing voters. It’s not just the cost of living but social issues and issues of race that are dividing the country. They must be dealt with firmly.
Without a change of tack National will continue to give ACT the inside running and in doing so, create hurdles for themselves. On October 14 National needs to win, not by a nose, but by the length of the track. To achieve that, I’d recommend a change of course.