I have often said that as we get closer to the election, we will not see a surge in big party support, but a slide. The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll confirms that the slide is real. Both Labour and National continue to slide away, while minor party support grows.
| Party | Support | Change from last month |
| National | 33.3% | down 2.4 |
| Labour | 31.1% | down 1.8 |
| ACT | 13.2% | up 0.5 |
| Green | 8.9% | down 0.8 |
| Maori | 5.0% | up 1.5 |
| NZ First | 3.3% | up 1.7 |
| Other | 5.2% | up 1.3 |
National drops 2.4 points on last month to 33.3% while Labour drops 1.8 points to 31.1%. ACT is up 0.5 points to 13.2% while the Greens are down 0.8 points to 8.9%.
The smaller parties are the Maori Party 5.0% (+1.5 points), NZ First on 3.3% (+1.7 points), Democracy NZ on 1.9% (+1 point), New Conservatives on 0.4% (-0.9 points), and TOP on 0.3% (-0.5 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll
So, a hung parliament is the projection on this poll. We are now three months out from the election and a clear lead should have emerged, but it hasn’t.
This is the usual pattern for elections: the major parties slide and the minor parties grow. It is entirely predictable and you have to wonder precisely how National plans on getting over 40% when the usual polling pattern is now abundantly clear.
This poll is great news for minor parties and confirms the general trend shown in other polls like the Talbot Mills one.
NZ First is on the cusp of being returned, and if National and Labour continue to slide then expect Winston Peters to pick up more support.
In the Preferred Prime Minister stakes, both major party leaders have dropped in support since last month. Chris Hipkins sees a drop of 6 points to 23% while Christopher Luxon sees a drop of 3 points to 20%.
Jacinda Ardern still registers at 8% for preferred Prime Minister (down 1 point on last month last month) while David Seymour drops 1 point to 6%.
Winston Peters is on 3.6% (+0.8 points), Chlöe Swarbrick is on 2.3% (-0.1 points), Nicola Willis is also on 2.2% (-0.2 points), Matt King is on 1.9% (+1 point), Leighton Baker is on 1.1% (-0.2 points), Chris Bishop is on 1.1% (nc), James Shaw is on 0.6% (-0.2 points), and Marama Davidson is on 1.8% (+1.1 points).
National’s Christopher Luxon should be seeing growth in his rating but he is not. He’s been touring the country and people have been getting to know him. Clearly, that is not working. Perhaps he should consider hiding out in his basement; surely that couldn’t be any worse.
National’s strategists, if you can call them that, must be starting to worry.
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